As North Korea prepares to adjust its strategy toward South Korea ahead of Seoul’s presidential elections, Pyongyang is evaluating potential incoming governments using three key criteria: their hostility toward the North, their subservience to the United States, and their openness to peaceful coexistence.
A North Korean source told Daily NK recently that Pyongyang would “clearly distinguish between an approachable government in Seoul and one that should be cut off based on those three criteria.”
According to the source, these criteria serve not just as evaluation tools but as policy guidelines for shaping inter-Korean relations and determining dialogue possibilities. They provide a shared analytical framework for ruling party departments handling South Korea, the Foreign Ministry and other agencies, forming the core structure for political analysis reports sent to North Korea’s leadership.
Rating candidates on DPRK comments
First, North Korea will assess whether the new South Korean government views the North with hostility or takes a more defensive management approach. This includes comprehensive evaluation of the government’s statements about Kim Jong Un, its military policy direction, and diplomatic strategy.
For instance, People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo has labeled the North Korean government the “Kim Jong Un regime, the principal enemy,” and promised to scrap the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement while resuming psychological warfare broadcasts. North Korean authorities view this as directly hostile.
In contrast, Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung has pledged to “restore the Panmunjeom Declaration” and “conditionally restart dialogue” with the North. Consequently, Pyongyang would likely see a Lee administration as more willing to compromise rather than launch direct attacks.
S. Korean cooperation with the US
The second criterion examines how closely the new South Korean government aligns with the United States. This includes the government’s willingness to maintain sanctions on the North, its stance on joint military exercises with the U.S., and its level of participation in Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
“If the new government fully cooperates with U.S. strategy, we’ll regard South Korea as essentially an appendage of U.S. imperialism,” the source said. “In that case, we believe dialogue would yield no practical benefits.”
The Yoon Suk-yeol administration’s increased participation in combined military exercises with the U.S. and involvement in America’s Indo-Pacific strategy appear to have significantly contributed to North Korea’s prolonged hard-line policy toward the South.
‘Peaceful coexistence’
The final criterion is whether the new administration is willing to establish peaceful coexistence based on recognizing North and South as independent entities. This includes willingness to implement existing inter-Korean agreements like the Sept. 19 military accords and Panmunjeom Declaration, as well as maintaining systematic dialogue structures and pursuing working-level cooperation.
“National cooperation has disappeared from the official vocabulary, but an attitude of mutual respect for peaceful coexistence remains crucial,” the source said. “What matters is whether the new government maintains the spirit of agreements like the Panmunjom Declaration.”
North Korea has already prepared to send its “first message” through KCNA, Choson Sinbo and other media immediately after the new South Korean government takes power. North Korean authorities plan to adjust the message’s tone and direction based on their three-criteria evaluation of the new government.
“If we judge the new government to be approachable, we could take steps toward practical-level talks after a certain observation period,” the source said. “But if we classify the new government as one to reject, we’d maintain our hard line while simultaneously trying to isolate Seoul diplomatically.”
No compromise on ‘military matters’
Based on these criteria, North Korea plans to demand that South Korea suspend combined military drills with the U.S., stop psychological warfare activities, and implement existing inter-Korean agreements. “These aren’t just conditions, but trust-building measures and ways to shape negotiation parameters in advance,” the source said.
“Only if all three conditions are met will working-level or summit talks be possible,” the source explained. “We can’t compromise on military matters (combined exercises with the U.S.) for national security reasons or threats to internal stability (psychological warfare).
“The Pyongyang Declaration is a top-level diplomatic document signed by our supreme leader, so ignoring it undermines the leader’s authority,” the source continued, adding: “If the new government won’t implement the agreement, we’ll classify it as an administration we cannot work with.”
Meanwhile, North Korea has made South Korea’s upcoming presidential election the starting point for resetting its South Korea strategy for the next five years.
“The authorities believe this will be the time to rebuild our Korean Peninsula strategy for the next five years, since the change in South Korea’s administration coincides with the Ninth Party Congress scheduled for early next year,” the source said.
“Military development and strengthening internal self-reliance are priorities, but the pace and intensity of our strategy will depend on the South Korean government’s attitude.”
