North Korea, within two days of President Lee Myung Bak proposing a resumption of inter-Korea dialogue, has criticized and refused the proposal on the basis that it amounts to “mere cunning.”
Rodung Shinmun, the publication of the North Korean Workers’ Party, gave this evaluation, “The group of puppet rebels said something about resuming the dialogue, but they are empty words. It is not even worth discussing because it is a mere repetition of what their lower-level officials have been saying all along.”
Since his inauguration, President Lee, in order to lay the groundwork for a breakthrough in strained inter-Korea relations, deployed the strategy of proposing to re-start the dialogue in a speech to the National Assembly, but it was still deemed insufficient for the North.
The President, through his administrative policy speech, displayed a conciliatory attitude regarding his basic position while urging a basic agreement between the two Koreas and the implementation of the June 15th and October 4th Declarations. However, the North said, “He did not clearly reveal his stance towards the Declarations.” It emphasized that the Lee administration should clearly reveal its position regarding implementation of the two declarations.
◆ The South must respect June 15 Joint Declaration and October 4th Declaration in order for dialogue to resume
Cho Dong Ho, professor at Ewha Women’s University, said, “From North Korea’s perspective, the June 15th and the October 4th Declarations were signed by the General himself, so if the South does not assertively express its respect for the agreements, it will be difficult to resume the inter-Korea dialogue.”
He pointed out, “If the South’s government intends to resume the dialogue, it could express its respect for the declarations with perfunctory decorum. There is a need for the government to be forthcoming in this matter to a greater extent.”
As a result, he said, “Our government needs to either take the active position of wishing to resolve inter-Korea relations in the next five years, or emphasize government policy in order to break with the customs of the last governments. It must choose between the two, but is vacillating in the middle right now.”
Kim Sung Bae, a researcher for the Institute for National Security Strategy, explained, “North Korea believes that the speech of President Lee is not an expression of his true stance on the subject of the declarations. President Lee mentioned the inter-Korea negotiations of the past, but his speech did not convey a clear respect for or intention of implementing of the agreements.”
◆ “Mt. Geumgang tourism is North Korea’s main meal ticket”
Researcher Kim forecasted, “Presently, North Korea does not feel a need to improve inter-Korea relations. Our administration also cannot accommodate the North’s requests 100%, so it seems difficult for the time being to achieve progress in relations which would be acceptable to the North.”
He explained, “U.S.-North Korea relations are going well, as proven by the 500,000 tons of food aid sent by the U.S., and China-North Korea relations are also going well. Fuel and energy aid will be sent to the North according to the results of the Six Party Talks and, if the nuclear issue is resolved, aid can be expected from the U.S. and the other Six Party countries next year, so support from the South is not as critical now as it was in the past.”
He also emphasized, “The North will not be this way forever, but so far, it has not shown any sense of urgency. When looking ahead at the next five years, North Korea seems strongly resistant to being dragged around by the South Korean administration.”
With regards to the impact of the shooting of a Mt. Geumgang tourist, Professor Cho forecasted, “North Korea still desperately wants inter-Korean commerce. Most likely, it does not want to cease inter-Korea exchange as a result of this incident. However, it has assumed a tough stance because it does not want to lose face.”
Researcher Kim analyzed, “The shooting incident itself, rather than reflecting recent inter-Korea relations, was an eruptive incident. It could continue to have an influence on future inter-Korea relations, but both could find a compromise point instead.”
“Because Mt. Geumgang tourism provides many thousands of dollars of gains annually to the North, a cease in inter-Korean economic cooperation and exchange will be a burden to the North, so we must respond calmly and collectedly to find the way through.”
