A few days ago, when I met an old defector who had just emerged from Hanawon (the resettlement education center for North Korean defectors outside Seoul) and we talked about the latest issues happening in Egypt and Libya, he asked me, “Libya is a rich country; how can riots break out in such a place?”
This former cadre, who had worked for the Chosun Workers’ Party, went on, “Now, there is no hope in North Korea,” but added that it is not so easy for the North Korean people to rise like the people of the Middle East because North Koreans have lost their courage thanks to Kim Jong Il.
However, “Once they stoke the fire, it will be hard for anything stop it. For me there was an alternative, defection, but if the Chosun people, who don’t have any space to step back anymore, become desperate, a horrible thing may happen.”
For me, someone who used to work for a provincial committee of the Party, the series of events in the Middle East are impressive because it gives me the belief that democratization will come to North Korea someday.
For cadres inside North Korea, people who have to pretend to be loyal to Kim Jong Il, these issues may make them quite confused. They have, after all, learned much of what they know through cadre lectures and the Reference Newspaper.
There is also no way that Kim Jong Il doesn’t know about this. Therefore, there have been many stories in the South Korean media about the authorities trying to stop the circulation of rumors. Additionally, the regime is, of course, carrying on idolizing Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Eun.
In 1994, shortly after the Soviet Union collapsed, Kim Jong Il issued a book, “Socialism Is a Science,” to emphasize that if we kept the red flag flying, we could survive, otherwise we would die. At that time every cadre had to study, discuss and participate in quizzes about the thesis.
Thinking back to that time, it wouldn’t surprise me if they published ideological books or essays in the name of Kim Jong Eun in order to promote Kim Jong Il’s greatness and try to prevent popular riots, just as they did during the early 1990s.
Around that time, Kim Jong Il busily performed onsite inspections at military bases, saying that the only entity he believed in was the People’s Army. Cadres just laughed into their hands and whispered, “Our General looks really busy, going here and there.”
Now, it is Kim Jong Eun’s turn. The two Kims believe that as long as they have power over the military, they can suppress any demonstration or riot and keep living their wealthy lives.
However, the soldiers of the Chosun People’s Army are the same sons and daughters of the people who have lived through all kinds of hardships. More than half of soldiers, whom Kim Jong Il and Jong Eun rely on, are malnourished now. The military may not side with Kim Jong Il forever.
If the people or military protest against the regime, Kim Jong Il will try to suppress them much more harshly than other dictators in the Middle East. However, despite this harsh violence, once people rise against the regime, it will not be possible to get them to go back.
