[imText1]On the 16th (local time), U.S. media sources reported indications of North Korea preparing a second nuke experiment. Our government officials are not refuting such reports which suggest that an additional nuke experiment is under way.
Experts foreshadow that the chances of North Korea conducting an additional nuke experiment are high. This is because North Korean authorities have little choice but to enforce a series of nuclear experiments for it to receive recognition as a country possessing nuclear skills and weapons. Even in May 1998, India and Pakistan triggered a series of 5, 6 nuclear experiments testing a variety of explosives from 1kt to 100’s kt.
The U.S Office of the Director of National Intelligence announced that the explosives used in the North Korean nuke experiment was under a scale of 1kt (1kt equivalent to 1000tons of TNT). On the basis of these results, experts speculate that in part, the North Korean nuke experiment had failed. A miniaturized nuke that is replicated to test skills also displays the same reaction.
Jeon Sung Hoon senior researcher at Korea Institute for National Reunification claimed “If North Korea had begun conducting a nuclear experiment on a large scale of 15~20kt and then followed it with a 1kt experiment, their skills could be acknowledged. However, considering the explosives were less than 1kt, there are high chances that it failed.” He said, “In comparison to developed countries North Korea’s nuclear skills are extremely poor.”
It is analyzed that North Korea is enforcing additional nuke experiments to contest and obliterate these arguments. Experts expect the additional nuke experiment to be larger in scale compared to the first. Another objective would be to dissuade the ambiance of the international community which is leaning towards a failed experiment. With the U.N. Security Council passing the North Korea sanction and as these sanctions become visible, it is possible that North Korea will continue with military force and conduct nuke experiments in resistance.
Amidst these circumstances and following the nuke experiments, North Korea warned, “If U.S. pressure continues to rise, we will also respond with materialistic countermeasures” while uttering that it is notifying the world of its additional nuke experiments. Moreover, there appears to be two main objectives of North Korea enforcing additional nuke experiments.
First is acknowledgement that its experiments succeeded and that it is a nation in possession of nuclear armaments. If the second nuke experiment is a success, then whether or not the international community agrees with North Korea, there will be no choice but to recognize North Korea as a nuclear possessing nation. Then in a position of nuclear power, North Korea will begin seeking foreign strategy and its strategy against the South.
In addition, if “negotiations” were to continue, no longer will the negotiations aim for “North Korea’s nuke surrender” but a “disarmaments negotiation” between the nuclear possessing nations North Korea and the U.S. Like North Korea’s idea of the “Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” ending with the withdrawal of the U.S, this will mean a disarmaments negotiation and the destruction of the U.S.-Korea alliance.
Further, for the past 50 years North Korea has been developing nuclear armaments claiming it to be “Peaceful nuclear energy” and “negotiable.” Similarly, if a disarmaments negotiation commences, North Korea will most probably aim to destroy the Korean Peninsula peace negotiations which is based on the Korea-U.S. alliance.
Second, the purpose of enforcing additional nuke experiments is to incite public opinion within the U.S. about “Talks with North Korea.” Strongly enforcing additional nuke experiments raises concerns by peace idealists who support that appropriate agreements should be maintained. This further pushes the U.S. to generate talks.
Kim Jong Il’s mentality, “If you are pushed once, you will be pushed to the end”, is being disciplined on his followers. Further, in the case the Security Council pressurizes the people the chance of a second nuke experiment rises. It is predicted that if North Korea does conduct additional nuke experiments, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula could only be achieved not only by further North Korea resolutions but with the end of the Kim Jong Il regime.
