News of Kim Jong Il conducting onsite inspections has not emerged for a month, and even a summit meeting between North Korea and Russia has apparently been cancelled, leading immediately to the reemergence of doubts over the state of the North Korean leader’s health. Following the cancellation of the summit, Japan’s Kyodo News Agency, citing multiple Russian intelligence officials, raised the claim that the reason for the cancellation was probably health-related.
From May 20th to May 27th, for eight days and in a condition of imperfect health, Kim Jong Il took on a 6000km trip around China. This would be a tough undertaking even for someone in perfect health. It can be assumed that Kim’s medical team considered his entire China schedule, but taking into account his age and medical history, it is clear that this was no ordinary itinerary.
Kim Jong Il went to China with the minimum aim of attracting Chinese economic and diplomatic support, but it is doubtful whether he reached those goals. Just one year before North Korea is supposed to establish the ‘strong and prosperous nation’, the fact is that Pyongyang needs extensive economic support. However, with the exception of the development of special economic zones, the eye is not drawn to any obvious results of the trip. In any case, it is highly likely that China’s support was insufficient to allow next year’s party to go ahead as planned.
On the other hand, Kim certainly received a demand that he improve inter-Korean relations from Chinese President Hu Jintao, and another demand that he embark on reform and opening from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, so is likely to have emerged feeling in poor shape.
Thus, immediately after the China trip, the level of North Korea’s criticism of South Korea rose to a new crescendo. “We will not deal with South Chosun,” they threatened, following it up by revealing the existence of preparatory contacts between the two Koreas for the discussion of a possible summit, and even including a ‘revelation that wasn’t’; namely a bribe, allegedly offered by the South Korean delegation. This has since been followed by the problem of repatriating (or not) a group of North Koreans which drifted into South Korea across the West Sea, the problem of private assets in the Mt. Geumgang tourist area and more; all of which, analysis suggests, has actually been aimed at Beijing.
And now, Kim Jong Il has not appeared at an onsite inspection for a month. His only appearances have been at a few indoor performances. He is a man who uses onsite inspections to try and plug the gaps in his regime caused by the failings of his rule, so halting onsite visits is naturally focusing attention on Kim’s health. It is possible that the stress of both Russia and China’s insufficient support and the rigorousness of his schedule, not to mention the domestic dilemmas posed by the third generation succession and the issue of the strong and prosperous state, are conspiring to make his health worse.
In a film of the trip to China recently obtained by intelligence agencies in South Korea, Kim’s left leg appears to have limited function and he can be seen relying on members of his entourage. Normally, a stroke patient is encouraged to neither drink nor smoke, and to avoid excessive stress and the risk of overdoing things. Kim, who suffers from other health problems besides the aftereffects of his stroke, is not likely to have held to even these rules, so it is highly probable, is it not, that he would suffer from other problems as time goes by.
For the time being, South Korean intelligence authorities say they have not detected any clear symptoms of a problem with Kim Jong Il’s health. However, there is sufficient cause for doubt, namely that Kim has not conducted an onsite inspection for a month and the summit in Russia has been cancelled. If these things are connected to problems with Kim’s health, then the chance is there that predicting the future of the Korean Peninsula will soon become impossible once again.
※ The writer’s opinions are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Daily NK.
