[imText1]There are diverse opinions regarding this matter, ranging from the opinion that China will merge its soil with North Korea to the notion that China will not interfere with the issue of North Korea, for in reality, their influence is not so great.
In retrospect, China’s foreign policy on North Korea is much more veiled than that of U.S., Japan, or South Korea. In a democratic society, important national policy agendas, processes and results are often derived in transparent manner. This makes it much easier for outsiders to analyze and make decisions. Hence, there are many vague points regarding the policy making procedures and regarding the decision makers themselves. North Korean issues are one example.
There are diverging opinions on China’s foreign policy regarding North Korea.
Regarding China’s stance on Absorbing North Korea: Preference for Premature Unification of the Peninsula
The first opinion reported is that China prefers to absorb North Korea and include it as a part of China’s Northeast region, as they did with Tibet in 1950.
The supporters of this opinion are also supporters of democracy who naturally advocate premature reunification through absorption. They perceive Dongbeigongcheng (Specific research project on the history of China’s Northeast Region) as yet another indicator of this intent.
Another analysis is that North Korea could possibly become a subordinate to China’s economy, an idea which is raising a lot of fear.
This argument emphasizes that North Korea has high possibility of becoming a subordinate to China. In reality, North Korea’s reliance on trade with China is at 39% (according to 2006 statistics).
The supporters of the Sunshine Policy are avid fans of the colonization of the North Korean economy. This is because they need to justify the legitimacy of the Sunshine Policy, which claims that North Korea’s weak economy must be emphasized in order to create stronger economic cooperation between the two Koreas.
There is a similarity between the two opinions mentioned above in that they are both negative on China’s influence regarding North Korea’s change.
They both state that South Korea’s influence must increase while preventing China’s influence from growing to strong with regards to North Korea’s future. They both view South Korea’s influence and China’s influence as two contradictory forces.
Hwang Jang Yop and Richard Perle’s Theory on China’s Influence
There are opposing arguments regarding China’s active participation in North Korean affairs. The main spokesperson for this argument is Hwang Jang Yop, the former International Secretary of North Korea Workers’ Party. Hwang states that China’s influence is necessary for North Korean democratization. If the China-North Korea alliance is broken, the liberalization-reform of the Kim Jong Il regime is also fallible. Furthermore, he claims that North Korea must follow in the footsteps of the China-led reform-liberalization strategy. He urged that China and the U.S. must work together to pursue the reform-liberalization of North Korea.
A supporter of the U.S.’ Iraq War, Richard Perle’s arguments are similar to that of Hwang. In his newly released book, “An End to Evil: How to Win the War on Terror” Perle urges regime change in North Korea through the pressure of China.
Victor Cha, who was involved in North Korean issues within the Bush administration, also claims that U.S.-China cooperation is necessary to solve the North Korean issue. Victor Cha, in the 2004 Summer edition of Political Science Quarterly, stated that China should increase its pressure on North Korea in regards to the nuclear weapons program because, in the end, it is to China’s benefit to do so. He also claimed that it would be wise to maintain a U.S.-China cooperation status in order to elevate China’s status in the international community.
Here, one can see what China’s role must be in order to resolve the North Korean issue. There are two diverging opinions: one claims that South Korea must take up the reins and control the situation, while the other opinion empresses that China must exert more influence and increase pressure on North Korea. (continues)
China’s Influence on North Korea Not Very Strong-Part II
However, there is also an opinion that is different from the arguments stated previously. In reality, the actual influence that China has on North Korea may not be much.
Xu Dunxin, China’s Vice-Chairman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs attending the 7th Korea-China Leaders Forum on August 28th 2007, stated that, “Unlike what outside observers may think, China does not know what is happening inside North Korea in detail. I hope that South Koreans do not inflate China’s role in regards to solving the North Korea issue.”
The opinion regarding the supposedly miniscule influence that China can exert on North Korea is mostly coming from the experts and government officials within China. The officials of the Ministry of National Defense, foreign policy ministers, and academics affiliated with Chinese think tanks all stated along a same line.
It is impossible at the moment to come up with a congruent, unilateral analysis in regards to the role that China must play on North Korea or in regards to their policy on North Korea.
Truly, in order to better resolve the issue of North Korea, there must be a consensus on the public opinion in South Korea. (continues)
