Recent North Korean steps to improve bilateral relations with South Korea, including the wide-ranging National Defense Commission statement of January 16th and subsequent January 24th Red Cross proposal for a round of separated family reunions, represent a volte-face from the hostile rhetoric of much of last year.
What inspired this turnaround? The answer is not to be found in South Korea, where the administration of President Park Geun Hye has remained consistent in its position that the North must provide proof of its sincerity through actions, not words. Rather, the North Korean leadership appears to be laying the groundwork to try and extract itself from its current circumstances.
The Kim regime, which has been spending considerable sums on construction projects for more than two years, is mired in domestic instability following last month’s purge and execution of Jang Song Taek, who was seen as one of the state’s most pragmatic economic officials. Therefore, they may see the reunions proposal as a specific strategic gesture; designed to improve inter-Korean relations on the one hand, but moreover to generate beneficial knock-on effects for Sino-North Korean relations at the same time.
Should the “peace offensive” not proceed as planned, however, it is firmly within the realm of possibility that the regime could ratchet up tensions on the Korean Peninsula, for instance by staging a provocation on the pretext of spring ROK-U.S. joint military exercises.
Alternatively, they may continue along the current conciliatory path, partaking in the proposed separated family reunions in an attempt to construct favorable conditions for future economic interactions.
Some North Korea experts even believe that young incumbent Kim Jong Eun is motivated to reverse the negative view of the regime held by the international community; an image that has only been enhanced by the execution of Jang Song Taek. Thus, this group argues, the North is set to continue with the current rhetorical “peace offensive” while engaging in practical measures such as family reunions.
Others forecast that the North’s conciliatory stance will falter upon the fast approaching ROK-U.S. joint military drills. Media-led anger at the drills, a tried and tested means of generating internal solidarity for the North, cannot be reconciled with the desire to connect the issue of family reunions with the restarting of operations at the Mt. Geumgang tourist resort, one of Pyongyang’s more reliable, lower-cost methods of generating hard currency.
One North Korea expert who requested anonymity told Daily NK, “North Korea recognizes that they are in a situation where they cannot attract foreign capital without investment from the South, which in turn negatively impacts their economic development. They are pursuing a conciliatory attitude toward the South as a way to break free from external economic pressure.”
“The North feels it is overly reliant on trade with China,” he went on. “So they are probably unfurling this conciliatory policy in the hope that it will help turn the South into an economic lifeline.”
Furthermore, “Playing the ‘family reunions card’ is the easiest way for the North to take the practical steps that the South so desires. But it’s highly likely that they will later demand a great deal from the South Korean government going forward.”
The expert also believes it highly probable that the North will raise tensions on the peninsula if events do not unfold as they anticipate. Should such a situation arise, he warned, “The South Korean government must continue to adhere to its principles. They must also come up with ways to ensure the North makes moves to restart the Six-Party Talks and enact measures in advance toward denuclearization.”
Oh Gyeong Seob of the Sejong Institute added, “Based on the South’s continued persistence that the North prove its sincerity, it seems the regime has grasped that other issues (the restart of tourism at Mt. Geumgang) may be discussed if trust is first built at the lower levels (via family reunions). However, past peace offensives by the North have ended badly, so a sudden provocation simply cannot be ruled out.”
