South Korean President Park Geun Hye announced in her Armed
Forces Day speech that the soldiers and citizens of North Korea are always
“welcome in the land of freedom – the Republic of Korea.” She also said, “Our
nation will do all it can to address the provocations and crimes against
humanity perpetrated by the North Korean regime” and “leave the path open so
that North Korean citizens can find hope and reimagine their lives.”
When reflecting on the recent series of blunt criticisms and
intensifying containment policy against the North, it seems that the Park
administration is preparing for the end of the Kim Jong Un regime, even though
it denies this. It can be surmised that there are elements within the Park
government leaning toward more active measures against North Korea under the
acknowledgement that the Kim Jong Un regime is showing little possibility for
desirable change.
Changes in the socialist system can come from below with
public demonstrations or from the top as the regime decides to change itself,
as in the cases of China and Vietnam. But both ways are unlikely to occur in
North Korea, because public expression is severely repressed by the regime. Kim
Jong Un also appears satisfied with the current state of affairs and is
unlikely to promote any significant reform of the system in the near future.
Thus, in North Korea’s case, change can only be initiated by
encouraging the emergence of cracks in the power structure. President Park’s
‘defection encouraging’ remarks can be interpreted as going on the offensive
with an intention to accelerate collapse of the Kim Jong Un regime.
The Obama administration, although reaching the end of its
term, is also actively increasing pressure on North Korea. The US government
has sanctioned China’s Hongxiang Group in Liaoning Province, which is being
accused of providing nuclear and missile-related materials to North Korea. The
administration is also issuing formal requests to governments around the world
to sever or downgrade their economic and diplomatic relations with North Korea.
In addition, the level of sanctions in response to Pyongyang’s fifth nuclear
test in September is expected to surpass that of UNSC Resolution 2270 declared
in March.
The North Korean regime is likely to continue its
provocative actions. This year alone, it conducted two nuclear tests and
successfully launched a Musudan missile and SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic
missiles). Experts also agree on a high likelihood of the regime continuing to
develop its intercontinental ballistic missiles including the KN-08 and KN-14
to prepare them for actual deployment. In more serious scenarios, it is
possible that North Korea will attempt to fire a missile into waters off the
west coast of the US.
The US is likely to maintain some level of strategic
patience until a predetermined threshold is crossed, but would not unilaterally
conduct military action against North Korea without some level of consent from
the South Korean government. In recent months, the atmosphere on the Korean
peninsula is ominously reaching levels last seen in 1994, when the need for a
military response was more commonly discussed.
The tension between South Korea and its allies and North
Korea appears to be escalating. Former U.S. president Bill Clinton wrote in his
memoirs that back in 1994, during the crisis on the Korean Peninsula, he was
firmly determined to use every measure at his disposal to prevent North Korea
from developing nuclear weapons, even if it increased the risk of war. It
remains to be seen how the new administration will react if the Korean Peninsula tumbles further into crisis.
*Views expressed in Guest Columns do not necessarily those of Daily NK.
