North Korean authorities keep tight lid on elite defection

North Korean authorities have not issued an official
notification to diplomatic staff in China about the defection of Thae
Yong Ho, a prominent diplomat and minister who was posted in London. Owing to the
importance of overseas staff in foreign currency earning operations, the regime
has been unable to radically change the system or withdraw its staff, but it is
taking covert steps to preempt imitation defections and domestic unrest. 

“There has thus far been no official order or notification
about the diplomatic cadre who defected to South Korea from his post in England. In fact, most employees and staff at the embassy still do not know about the
incident,” a source in China close to North Korean affairs told Daily NK on
August 19.  

“Diplomatic families are also proceeding with business as
usual. The eyes of the diplomatic personnel here in China are on other things.
For instance, in the North Korean embassy in Liaoning, most are preoccupied
about the fact that the embassy will cease customs operations on August 20,
meaning that the employees will need to find new ways to earn foreign
currency.”

When asked about the potential repercussions of the Thae
Yong Ho defection, the source said that if the news “fails to spread through the
grapevine” no significant changes are to be expected. One notable shift,
however, is an uptick in monitoring by the State Security Department.

The State Security Department is particularly suspicious of
the ideological purity of cadres who are especially rich or especially poor.
They are viewed to have the highest flight risk and are thus monitored
tightly.

Sources inside North Korea also confirmed that there are no
unusual movements at the North Korea-China border.

A source from North Korea’s North Pyongan Province said,
“News of the defection is not spreading via the rumor mill. Added a source from
Ryanggang Province, “There have been signs of incrementally harsh crackdowns on
defections, but there aren’t any other special developments at this time.”  

Although the news has not yet spread throughout North Korea,
the possibility is high that the news will soon pour over the Chinese border
and reach the broader citizenry. Additionally, North Koreans who are currently
abroad will bring back the news when they return. From there, it will spread
naturally from person to person.

The source in China surmised that a sizable number of cadres
within North Korea will already be aware of Thae’s defection. “This isn’t the
first time a prominent defector has fled with his/her family, so nobody will be
surprised at the news. However, people inside the country will not bring up the
subject loosely because they fear punishment,” she pointed out.

The source continued, “In the past, rumors about diplomatic
defections spread through Pyongyang cadres and residents with lightning speed.
The sudden rise of elite diplomatic defections in the Kim Jong Un era is not
being publicly addressed, but the authorities will not be able to prevent the
news from circulating in the long run.”  

It is likely that the authorities will step up censorship
efforts in the road ahead; however, this ideological pressure is likely to
produce the opposite effect, inciting further defections rather than stoking
the flames of loyalty.

“As the State Security Department continues to exert
pressure on overseas cadres through censorship and surveillance, they are only
going to succeed in producing adverse effects. Those that experience the
freedom of a democratic society are more prone to disillusionment under these
dictatorial techniques. The result? More will end up planning their own escape,”
she concluded.