NK’s efforts to divide public opinion in South could backfire

Just one day after test-firing three ballistic missiles, North Korea announced on Wednesday that the drill was part of its training for a preemptive attack against South Korea’s major facilities and U.S. forces in the South. The move is understood as a form of protest against Seoul’s decision to introduce the U.S. advanced missile defense system THAAD, and an attempt to widen the chasm between those in the South who support and oppose the battery deployment. 

North Korea’s state broadcaster Korean Central Television and the Party-run publication Rodong Sinmun respectively explained the North had “limited the range of the missiles to simulate preemptively striking the South’s ports and airbases, which are within the strategic zone of the American imperialists’ to-be-deployed nuclear war equipment,” and that it had “once again reviewed the characteristics of movements of the nuclear warhead trigger device that is attached to ballistic missiles aiming at specific target areas from set altitudes.” 

In other words, North Korea claims its recent test-firing was targeting Seongju, where the THAAD battery will be deployed, as well as ports in Busan and Pohang, and airbases in Gimhae and Daegu, where U.S. forces would reinforce their troops under emergency conditions. 

Rodong Sinmun highlighted this capability by releasing an image of Kim Jong Un, who was on site to observe the drill, standing in front of a map marked with the missile trajectory from the North’s Hwangju to the East Sea along with the point of impact near Busan and Ulsan. 

Experts point out that by pinpointing specific targets, Pyongyang is hoping to create a divide within the South Korean public by creating anxiety among those living in the surrounding areas. It is also seeking to raise questions about the effectiveness THAAD will have in countering these attacks. 

It is also using this opportunity to reevaluate its missile program at a time when the regional dynamic has been altered, with the THAAD decision pitting South Korea and the U.S. against China and Russia. 

“North Korea might try to justify its missile development program during this time of conflict over THAAD between Seoul and Beijing, Washington and Beijing, and also among the South Korean public,” Kim Young Hwan, senior researcher from the Network for North Korean Democracy and Human Rights, said. “It likely believes that the contentious division over THAAD among neighboring countries will nullify a response to the missile test–or let the entire matter slide altogether.”

A former senior military official from North Korea who defected to the South explained the recent actions are not simply to protest the deployment of THAAD through military means. Considering the inordinate amount of coverage in the Rodong Sinmun pertaining to the heated debate over THAAD deployment in the South, the defector said, indicates that Pyongyang is looking to further divide public opinion south of the border.

“It wants to show people that it’s confident it can attack the South at any time despite the THAAD deployment and also try to promote the idea that the defense system will be of no use in order to create even more splintering within the South,” he said. 

However, some experts speculate this show of force could underscore the existing vacuum in Seoul’s missile defense capability against North Korea, thereby strengthening the argument of THAAD proponents.