Sudden change in NK still distant forecast

Despite predictions that Kim Jong Un’s ‘terror politics’ could push residents and Party cadres
toward dissent, many experts in the field warn against cleaving to assessments of rapid destabilization of the regime in the short-term future. 

“It’s extremely difficult to do anything
against the government in North Korea because the surveillance mechanisms are
at least ten times more developed than other countries possessing high-tech surveillance
devices,” Kim Young Hwan, senior researcher at NK Net, asserted at a seminar  hosted by Unification Media Group in Tokyo last weekend.
 

“Every movement by high-ranking officers in the military and
the Party is tracked at all times; it’s fairly impossible for them to test
run a potential opposition movement, let alone carry it out.”
 

Taking these factors in account, Kim
asserted, even harboring these sentiments guarantees a difficult existence. 
Every aspect of life in North Korea is
highly militarized and systematized, rendering clandestine actions virtually
impossible, Kim went on to explain, noting, “For 67 years, North Korea’s entire
national and social infrastructure–down to the minds of its citizens–have
been molded to suit Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il’s reign. This type of society
is not going to just suddenly change under Kim Jong Un.”  
 

By the senior researcher’s assertion, it is yet too early to
see if Kim Jong Un’s unbalanced reign will grow more severe. The young leader’s
steadfast emphasis on economic development suggests that he is unlikely to
divert his attention solely to political oppression.
 

However, the expert predicted the
likelihood of social instability to be low in the short-run but higher in the
long-run. After all, North Korean residents were quick to parse the gaping disparity in leadership between Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il after
suffering a devastating nationwide famine during the latter’s time at the helm
of the country.
 

And cut to the present, they view Kim Jong
Il’s son even less favorably. 
“People’s loyalty toward Kim Jong Il was
about half of that they had toward Kim Il Sung; accordingly, the loyalty they have for
Kim Jong Un is at half of what it was for his father,” he explained.

“Kim Jong Un faces more disadvantages than
his father did when it comes to building authority; while the former had been
exposed to the public since a very early age, Kim Jong Il was able to accumulate power rather quietly during his early years.”
 

Thus, while the probability of a sudden
change in North Korea remains relatively low, the possibility balloons with
each passing year. Just 10 years ago, North Korea watchers predicted the chance for sudden change
in North Korea within 5 years at 20% at the time; currently, pundits have upped
that percentage to 30.
 

Moreover, “If we stretch the timeline by
ten 10 or 15 years, well, that number–that is, possibility–gets even higher,” Kim
pointed out.