Speculation is swirling amid North Korea’s
decision to revoke permission for Ban Ki Moon, secretary-general of the United
Nations, to visit the isolated country only one day ahead of the scheduled trip. Ban was slated to be the
first U.N. secretary-general to visit the Kaesong Industrial Complex [KIC], a
joint factory complex between the two Koreas, located north of the inter-Korean
border.
One current theory circulating among North
Korean experts asserts that North Korea’s abrupt announcement to cancel the
visit at such a late juncture reflects a disagreement among those in the higher
echelons of power, specifically vis-à-vis the domestic and foreign benefits
wrought by Ban’s potential visit to the state. In light of the recent provocations by the
North, such as the launching of a ballistic missile from a submarine, aimed at
placing pressure on the U.S. and South Korea, North Korea could have decided
that Ban’s visit would bring more loss than gain for its state.
Other opinions in the field ascribe Kim
Jong Un’s erratic governance style as basis for scrapping the
secretary-general’s visit. Kim, as the supreme leader of North Korea, may have
vacillated on the decision, tentatively reached one, and then spontaneously
backtracked.
“While Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il built a
Suryeong [Supreme Leader] system, Kim Jong Un appears to have trouble at the helm of it” a researcher at a policy think tank said on condition of anonymity. “Kim
would have to advise the Propaganda and Agitation Department, Organization and Guidance Department, and other power organs on protocol for Ban’s visit, but he completely
lacks the ability to make comprehensive decisions.”
He went on to add that fearing potential skepticism
or misgivings regarding his leadership prowess if his subjects failed to fall in
line, Kim may have summarily cancelled the visit altogether. “The abrupt
cancellation of Ban’s visit may be ascribed to Kim’s capricious disposition,
which can also be seen in his cancellation of the visit to Russia this August.
It clearly shows that he has no diplomatic finesse,” the researcher noted.
Other analysis points to embroilment over wage issues for laborers at
KIC as potentially playing into Kim’s decision, surmising that a visit from an official with South Korean citizenship could be viewed in
a negative light internally. Moreover, Ban’s steadfast demands for the
improvement of North Korea’s human rights situation may have contributed significantly to Kim’s decision to renege.
Daily NK looked to Jo Bong Hyun, a senior
researcher at IBK Economic Research Institute, for more information. “The visit
to the North would have been easy had the issues on KIC wages been solved, but
because the whole thing is unsettled it likely had a significant effect [on the
abrupt withdrawal of Ban’s visit],” he said.
Lim Eul Chool, a professor at Kyungnam
University, also weighed in on the situation, stating, “It seems that North
Korea decided that the U.N. secretary-general’s visit would not make virtual
contributions to solving pending issues,“ also echoing aforementioned sentiments
that the U.N.’s unflinching broaching of the North’s human rights infringements affected the recent decision.
Kim Gwang In, the head of the Association
for Korea’s Advancement, posited that because a South Korean at the forefront of an international governing organ places him in a
position higher than that of Kim Jong Un, who would be keen to keep this from
spreading among the population via KIC workers.
