Elite Death Yields Hints at Power Balance

The death of senior North Korean official
Jon Pyong Ho has provided an opportunity for analysts and observers to take stock of
the relative power balance between different individuals at the core of the Kim Jong
Eun system.

Jon, a senior general in the Chosun People’s
Army (KPA) prior to his retirement, died aged 88 of a heart attack on Monday,
according to a brief dispatch carried by Chosun Central News Agency today. His
last post before passing away, the piece noted, was “honorary curator of
the KPA Museum of Weapons and Equipment from May 2012.” Jon was a recipient of the two highest orders of merit in the North Korean system,
the Order of Kim Il Sung and Order of Kim Jong Il.

In a follow-up article, KCNA released a list of the
full 88-person state funeral committee, a traditional measure in both North
and South Korea. Made up of leading figures in the Party, military and state
hierarchies, the list is topped by Kim Jong Eun, followed by nominal head of state Kim Yong Nam, Cabinet Prime Minister Pak Pong Ju,
and Hwang Pyong So.

The most notable absence is that of Kim
Kyung Hee, Kim Jong Eun’s aunt and widow of Jang Song Taek. Kim appeared fifth
on the last such state funeral committee to be formed, that for Kim Kuk Tae in
2013. Kim’s absence lends yet more weight to the presumption that she
has been comprehensively removed from the corridors of power.

Yesterday, Daily NK reported news that Kim may
now be recuperating at a Kim family villa in Samjiyeon near Mt. Baekdu. Local
Yangkang Province residents, accustomed to the maneuvering that goes on within
the autocratic Kim dictatorship, say that this kind of “recuperation” amounts
to de facto exile.

Someone on the opposite track to Kim Kyung
Hee is Hwang Pyong So, the powerful head of the General Political Department of
the KPA and a departmental director in the Party Organization and Guidance
Department. He did not appear on the funeral committee list in 2013, but is
listed fourth this time around.

An official who has seen his status decline
markedly in recent months, Party secretary Choe Ryong Hae appears 8th on
the list, amply reflecting his demotion from the position now occupied by Hwang
Pyong So. Two officials known to be close to the deceased Jang Song Taek,
Ministry of People’s Security chief Choe Bu Il and Vice-prime Minister Ro Du
Cheol both also make the list, in 19th and 20th place
respectively.

Finally, although questions have been
raised in recent months over the position of Kim Yang Geon, the veteran head of
the Party United Front Department, he also made the list in 15th.

It should be noted that while such listings provide a guide to general power trends, they do not perfectly reflect power accretion to each individual in the top elite class. Some people who do not appear on the latest list, for instance Kim Jong Eun’s sister Kim Yeo Jong, hold more power than the listing would otherwise suggest due to their unofficial proximity to the center of power.