China’s foremost social sciences research institute has commented
on the possibility of Beijing abandoning its North Korean ally, a rare
occurrence that is attracting attention in South Korea.
In its recent report on the Asia-Pacific region, the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences asserts that while North Korea currently represents a Chinese “strategic asset,” Pyongyang
should be aware that China could, if necessary, opt for the greater interest
represented by regional security, an interest that is periodically threatened
by North Korean nuclear tests and similar actions.
However, the report adds that North Korea knows that in the
absence of its nuclear capacity it cannot compete with South Korea, while South
Korea knows that in the event of conflict it would suffer enormous economic
harm. This, it declares, evidences the assertion that conflict on the Korean
Peninsula remains “unlikely.”
It goes on to state that the decisive elements on the Korean Peninsula going forward
are: North Korea’s political security and economic development; South Korea’s
policy on the North; and the roles of the U.S. and China. Though
reunification is unlikely in the near term, it predicts that “inter-Korean relations are likely
to improve greatly.”
Commenting on the report in conversation with Daily NK on
the 5th, Lee Tae Hwan of the Sejong Institute’s China Research Center said that China’s
decision to mention abandoning North Korea conveys the message to Pyongyang and others that “It won’t
be easy to defend North Korea forever.” It is a message that deliberately places “psychological pressure on the North,” he added.
