After nine months in office, Kim Jong Eun has become fully immersed in the ‘politics of the show’. In the beginning, images shot during Kim’s onsite guidance visits were taken from far away, but more recent footage has been from closer in. In the beginning he looked awkward, almost as though lost, but now he seems confident, almost as though he is enjoying himself.
This kind of onsite guidance visit is absolutely essential for the establishment of a new young leader, of course, but on the other hand the longer one enjoys it the more dangerous it becomes. Kim was given the title of supreme leader because he is the son of Kim Jong Il, but for as long as he is being looked after by a clique of guardians, this kind of showpiece event runs the risk of leaving him as a puppet.
Kim could end up going on guidance visits simply to satisfy some form of craving for amusement. He could end up “showing his affection for the people” all the time, rather than focusing on the boring and complex internal problems North Korea faces. Concentrating on the “onsite guidance visit method” of rule will surely lead to fascination at his own style and appreciation of the power he happens to possess. We shouldn’t rule out the possibility of cracks in a system that is not well managed.
That’s not all. Jong Eun seems to be confident making observations and giving orders. However, it became clear during the Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il eras that orders handed down during guidance visits don’t last long. Kim Il Sung’s teachings and Kim Jong Il’s orders are supposed to be above the law, but the sheer randomness of this method of rule is what got North Korean politics, economics and administration in the mess they are in today.
The reason why Kim Il Sung utilized onsite guidance visits was to suppress opposition in the 1950s and legitimize his words. Kim Jong Il did the same in the 1970s, building his reputation as a ‘people’s leader’ with ‘a beloved leader’s virtues and practices’. Right up until his own death, Kim Jong Il’s guidance visits continued.
The real problem in that sense is that Kim Jong Eun’s situation is different. Kim Jong Il had active support, a stable economy and Kim Il Sung on his shoulder; he earned the reputation of a successor through these guidance visits. Conversely, Kim Jong Eun has limited support and the economy and loyalty are both at low ebb.
Unlike Kim Jong Il, who knew the strengths and weaknesses of ruling through guidance visits, Kim Jong Eun is likely to fall into the foolish trap of enjoying them, thinking they represent his power itself. Addicted to the handshakes and the hugs with soldiers and the enthusiastic people who welcome him everywhere he goes. Kim Jong Eun is too young to know what is right and wrong in the midst of such praise.
Kim Jong Eun has not yet proved that he has leadership or a vision. Ahead of South Korea’s presidential election, some are saying that the Kim regime is changing, and that we should resume Mt. Geumgang tourism, reinvigorate economic cooperation and pursue a 3rd summit. Yet if we were to actually do that with Kim Jong Eun, a man who wields his power without knowing what it means or the true essence of politics itself, inter-Korean relations and the cause of reunification could be set back by ten years.
