Where Is the End of Dialogue with North Korea?

Several significant events surrounding
North and South Korea relations and U.S. and North Korea relations have
occurred one after another since the end of last year until now. While South
Korea’s Presidential Preparatory Committee for Unification proposed high level
meetings (December 30th, 2014) and North Korea generously responding that
“there’s no reason not to” in their New Year’s Address (January 1st, 2015), the
U.S. held North Korea to blame for the hacking of Sony Pictures (November 24,
2014) and used measures of “retaliation” by paralyzing North Korea’s internet
and enforced an administrative order with North Korea sanctions (January 3rd,
2015). 

The U.S. is acting as a “lone ranger” while
North and South Korea conduct under-the-table negotiations for dialogue. It
seems that authorities from North and South Korea are attempting to avoid
giving significance to the U.S.’s decision. There has even been frustrating
analysis claiming that 2015 is the final “golden time” possible for the third
inter-Korean summit. It appears that they are striving to boost expectations
that  North and South Korea must take leaps towards unification in honor
of of the 70th anniversary of the liberation of Korea.
 

Jeong Jong Wook, vice chairman of the
Preparatory Committee for Unification, expressed during an interview with a
daily newspaper (January 7th, 2015) that the charter for unification to be
presented on August 15th will “incorporate North Korea’s thoughts.” Will an
Inter-Korean summit guarantee peace and unification? Yet, what could be the
cause of this feeling of deja vu?

North Korea’s New Year’s Address is
recognized as an important measure in assessing the country’s national and
international policies and approaches for the year. Kim Il Sung delivered it in
person from 1946 until the year of his death in 1994. Kim Jong Il gave written
announcements in the form of joint editorials instead. Starting from 2013, Kim
Jong Eun followed his grandfather’s style, Kim Il Sung, in personally
delivering the New Year’s address.
 

Professional opinions on the 2015 New
Year’s Address can be summed up to the following points. First, the point that
this is now the actual opening of the Kim Jong Eun era (establishment of a
single leadership system under Kim Jong Eun). Second, intentions to claim
support for (dialogue) proposals with South Korea. Third, plans to aim for
visible successes nationally and internationally in time for the 70th
anniversary of Party Foundation Day (October 10th).
 

The first point is the constant purpose of
existence and management goal of the North Korean government, but the other two
have hints of distinctively North Korean conditions and unchanging tactics of
“hit and run.”–this means demands to South Korea and the U.S. to first stop
their acts of hostility (how they refer to the U.S.-ROK combined training
exercises). This becomes a condition where discussion on dialogue can be
stopped at anytime. Even during the “Seoul sea of fire” threat in 1994 after
the first series of nuclear crises in 1993, North Korea’s prerequisite for a
resolution was the cessation of U.S.-ROK combined training exercises. When
looking at the patterns in the ten years (1995~2005) of New Year’s editorials
released after Kim Il Sung’s death, it is possible to predict the trends of
today. There is a sense that not much has changed.

New Year’s editorials from 1995 to 1997 can
be condensed to “complete solidarity centered on Kim Jong Il” and “clear vision
of military approach.” After the three years of rule under dying instruction,
Kim Jong Il modified the constitution (1998) and stipulated the completion of
“Kim Il Sung – Kim Jong Il-ism.” The slogan of the New Year’s editorial of
1998, three years after Kim Il Sung’s death, was “in the new year, let us all
follow the great leadership of the party and push forward a full march.” The
battle cry of the New Year’s Address of 2015, three years after Kim Jong Il’s
death, is, “L et us all turn out in the general offensive to hasten final
victory in the revolutionary spirit of Mt. Baekdu.” 

“The revolutionary spirit of Mt. Baekdu” is
a declaration of Kim Il Sung’s ideology of the “Baekdu bloodline” as legitimacy
and tradition. This becomes grounds for mobilization orders (of the people).
“Leadership of the party” signifies rule by “Kim Il Sung – Kim Jong Il-sim.”
The key content of South Korea’s policy included in Kim Jong Il’s 1998 New
Year’s editorial was the demand for “a change to a neighbor reconciliation
policy” towards South Korea and in order to do so, “support of autonomy, peace,
and amity as the basis of international policies.” 17 years later, in this
present day, is Kim Jong Eun not following in Kim Jong Il’s footsteps?
 

In the military related section of the 2015
New Year’s address, “active development and completion of high-tech arms equipment”
was included as a task for the national defense industry. In 2014, it was
“production of light-weight, manless, intelligent, and miniaturized modern arms
equipment.” Was North Korea’s shoddy drone in the fall of 2014, which wandered
the Seoul skies and fell numerous times unable to return home, evidence of
this?
 

Then what is this “high-tech arms
equipment” that North Korea speaks of? It’s not difficult to take a guess. One
can imagine the completed development of miniaturized light-weight nuclear warheads.
Perhaps a coincidence, the “2014 Defense White Paper” released on the 6th
stated that North Korea’s capabilities for miniaturization of nuclear weapons
have reached a “considerable level.” In other words, this means that they
almost have the ability to produce around 1 ton of nuclear warheads capable of
being installed in missiles. The only two things that North Korea needs to
establish “the joint advancement of nuclear force and economic construction” is
“money and time.” Even the continuation of negotiations for dialogue with South
Korea and the dialogue itself is at the least buying time for North Korea.
Positive signs of the people’s economy brings up speculation that the North Korean
government has accumulated some amount of cash assets.
 

When these two countries meet, North Korea
may strongly push for its own world. 72-year-old DJ (President Kim Dae Joong)
and 58-year-old Kim Jong Il met in 2000. 65-year-old Kim Jong Il and
61-year-old Roh Moo Hyun met in 2007. In return for his long dialogue and
negotiations with these two, Kim Jong Il successfully gained the “money and
time” to develop nuclear weapons and missiles. What could 33-year-old Kim Jong
Eun gain from meeting 64 year old Park Geun Hye in 2015?
 

There are immutable exogenous variables for
North Korea. The Resolution on the Human Rights Situation in the DPRK that
passed the general meeting of the UN General Assembly (December 18th, 2014)
became adopted as an official agenda for the Security Council (December 22nd,
2014), continuous anti-Pyongyang leaflet launches into North Korea by private
South Korean organizations, South Korea’s unrelenting May 24th sanctions, and
U.S. led pressure on North Korea.
 

As always, Kim Jong Eun’s three remaining
tasks are the complete stabilization of power, escape from international
isolation, and revival of the people’s economy. In order to do so, he attempted
to join hands with Japan and draw in Russia, but results fared poorly. He is
now fiddling with his final card of extending a hand to South Korea once more
without opening the other hand clutching nuclear weapons. 2015 will become this
situation’s experimental stage.

For North Korea, 2015 will be the year of
the 70th anniversary of the liberation of Korea and Party Foundation Day, the
65th anniversary of the Korean war, the 15th anniversary of the June 15th
North-South Joint Declaration, the 10th anniversary of the September 19th joint
statement, and the end of the third year of mourning. It is time for the 20-year-old gamble on nuclear weapons to reach some visible form of conclusion. It is
not easy to predict how North Korea’s gamble on nuclear weapons, alternating
from dialogue and threats while always repeating the tactic of hit and run,
will play out in 2015. It may be that the road to unification is hidden within
the “final countdown.” It is worth paying attention to which developments the
acceptance of Kim Jong Eun’s bold proposal to South Korea will make.

*Views expressed in Guest Columns do not necessarily reflect those of Daily NK.