The North Korea had already tried one long-range rocket launch this year, firing one off in mid April from a launch facility on its West Sea coast. Now, however, the country’s technical experts, allegedly with help from their Iranian counterparts, have managed to supplement the technical shortcomings that led that first rocket to fall like a stone into the sea seconds after launch. They’ve even gone one step further, placing a satellite in orbit and trumping South Korea’s own space ambitions in the process.
Whether or not foreign help was involved in today’s launch is not a key point, since North Korea proved way back in 2009 that it knows how to separate the second and third stages of a rocket successfully. It has, in effect, proven that a functioning (although highly unreliable) Intercontinental Ballistic Missile is within striking distance. Therefore, tomorrow’s key question must surely be how close Pyongyang has come to miniaturizing its nuclear weapons to the point of being able to put one on such a missile. It is not an entirely theoretical question, and the United States will surely be concerned.
Kim Jong Eun, meanwhile, emerged on top today, happening upon a good way to substantively calm the domestic unrest that has been bubbling under since he came to power and, in the early months of 2012, embarked on a round of purges across the military, Party and administrative sectors. The Kim regime warned the world that the launch was coming, but did not tell the people of North Korea, a move that indicated a lack of confidence. However, in winning that particular bet, the regime’s propaganda wonks now have an opportunity to decisively show off Kim’s military leadership, improve his standing in society and make society’s “haves” proud to be North Korean for a while.
Indeed, one might say that Kim has gained everything and lost nothing today. He certainly has not lost the backing of China, his main sponsor. However, the UN Security Council has already arranged a meeting to discuss the issue, and this will no doubt include discussion of sanctions. More importantly, there will no doubt also be discussion in Washington DC of the kind of financial sector sanctions that led to the Banco Delta Asia case. Even success, it may turn out, comes at a cost.
