Despite international opposition, North Korea recently declared the intention to launch another long-range rocket. The Chosun Committee for Space Technology revealed days ago that the missile is to be launched at some time between the 10th and 22nd of this month in a southerly direction from a launch site in Cheolsan County, North Pyongan Province.
It is the same place where the Gwangmyeongsung-3 was launched into the depths of the West Sea this past April. North Korea claims that the new rocket will carry the 2nd version of that Gwangmyeongsung-3 satellite, but even their ally China is urging them to adhere to the UN Security Council resolutions that ban such ballistic missile and rocket launches.
North Korea has conducted four other long-range rocket tests since 1998. South Korea and other regional powers see their latest plan to launch a “working satellite” as yet another illegal experiment with a rocket that can be used for long-range missile technology. There is no way that the international community will allow North Korea to use ballistic missile technology while it continues to engage in nuclear weapons development. It is because of this that the UN Security Council keeps enhancing the strength of missile-related sanctions against Pyongyang.
We are facing the same situation again. If North Korea launches this missile then the UN Security Council will convene and put additional sanctions on North Korea. The South Korean government, seeing the limitations inherent in the existing resolutions, will try to push for stricter sanctions.
Thus, one wonders why Kim Jong Eun has chosen to announce the launch of another long-range rocket, something that will not benefit his country in any way. It is due to the absence of economic recovery and because of recent major reshuffling in the military, two things that could have caused internal discontent. In other words, it is an essential move for Kim to stay in power.
During the Kim Jong Il era, a missile launch or nuclear test would act as a catalyst for negotiations; however, this pattern eventually brought distrust and isolation down upon North Korea. If another launch were to be conducted during the Kim Jong Eun era, not only would it have a negative effect externally, but it would also do so internally. If the missile launch were to fail, skepticism would spread. It seems that Kim Jong Eun lacks the leadership to quash this sentiment. Therefore, another missile launch is nothing other than a massive political gamble.
One other concern is that North Korea is acting like a baby wild animal; running around like crazy with no discernable destination. If Kim Jong Eun were to fail once again he might throw down a 3rd nuclear test to cover for his shame. He could all too easily end up putting all his eggs in one basket, taking inter-Korean relations and relations with the U.S. too lightly. South Korea and other neighboring countries will have to deal wisely with North Korea’s latest provocation in the first instance, but in the end it is clear that the provocation will come back to haunt them. No longer is time on North Korea’s side.
