The Joint New Year’s Editorial released on the 1st did not mention Japan at all, raising the assessment that Japan will be kept far off in North Korea’s future. According to a professor with Kansai University and a North Korea expert in Japan, Lee Young Hwa, future North Korea-Japan relations will be strained.
Professor Lee, speaking with Daily NK today, explained, “The main issue in North Korea-Japan relations is the ‘abductees’ problem, but for a while there will be no dialogue regarding this. North Korea will likely keep a hard-line stance toward Japan because Kim Jong Eun’s birth mother Koh Young Hui was a Korean-Japanese”.
Were this fact to emerge, the legitimacy of the North Korean supreme leader’s bloodline could get diluted. Currently in North Korea, knowledge of Koh Young Hui’s birthplace is top secret, meaning that if anyone were to speak of it they would end up in a political prison camp.
“Kim Jong Eun himself will attempt to conceal the fact that he is a descendant of a Korean-Japanese person, and that will be reflected in North Korea’s policies towards Japan,” Professor Lee commented, adding, “Chongryon(pro-Pyongyang Federation of Korean Residents in Japan)’s relationship with North Korea will get worse because of the previous relationship with Koh Young Hui. It will worsen. However, Chongryon is continuing to strengthen its allegiance to Kim Jong Eun by sending him loyalty funds.”
“Koh Young Hui idolization, similar to that for Kim Jong Suk, will take place, fabricating her career to produce a fake myth,” he added.
Meanwhile, regarding the idea of a ‘collective leadership system’ following Kim Jong Il’s death, Professor Lee said he believes it has “already settled in.”
Even before his stroke, Kim Jong Il suffered from Alzheimer’s and a collective leadership system has been in operation for some time to deal with that, according to Lee. North Korea has been preparing since that time, and introduced the collective leadership system in late 2007. Furthermore, Professor Lee claims that the Yeonpyeong Island shelling was due to internal conflicts in this collective leadership system.
“Kim Jong Il, had symptoms of Alzheimer’s since 2007. Since then the operation of a collective leadership system has bee in place and this is the reason why North Korea was not agitated by Kim Jong Il’s stroke or when he recently died.”
Controversially, he also emphasized, “The 2010 Yeonpyeong Island Shelling was due to internal conflict in the collective leadership system. Generally thought to have been conducted by hard-liners, the Yeonpyeong Island Shelling was led by Jang Sung Taek and Lee Young Ho.”
According to Professor Lee, at the 2010 Party Delegates’ Conference Lee Young Ho was appointed to a key post with Jang Sung Taek’s backing. But, other military groups had complaints about this, yet even before these could be expressed, Jang and Lee initiated the Yeonpyeong shelling. It was to turn attention outside of North Korea.
He underscored, “There are many opposition groups in the Worker’s Party and the military against Jang Sung Taek and Lee Young Ho. Those groups do not have the power to fight against Jang and Lee but Jang and Lee also do not have the power to purge these opposing forces. Currently, the collective leadership system is setting this balance of power.”
“Because of Kim Jong Il’s mourning period there are no ongoing disputes right now, but a dispute is likely to begin within six months. After that there could be cracks visible in the leadership,” he went on.
Professor Lee further evaluated that Kim Jong Eun is Jang Sung Taek and Lee Young Ho’s figurehead. Due to a lack of reliable people around Kim Jong Eun, Jang and Lee will have more weight in power.
Therefore, “Kim Jong Eun will likely be promoted to Chief-Secretary or Defense Commission Chairman on April 15th,” he said, but added that this is a mere formality to provide a skin for the ‘sole leadership system’.
