▲ President of the Sejong Institute Song Dae Sung

Mere speculation about the possibility of a third inter-Korean summit is considered by many to be an established fact. Rumors suggest that talks could take place before the end of the year, even as early as March or April.

The South Korean government has stated that if talks are to resume, the nuclear problem must be discussed, as well as POWs, kidnappings and humanitarian issues. Although such demands are hard for North Korea to swallow, discussions are ongoing, which reveals the North’s pressing need for a summit meeting or some other kind of game changer.

However, as President of the Sejong Institute Song Dae Sung pointed out in an interview with The Daily NK last week, “North Korea would not be receptive to an inter-Korean summit meeting if they believed themselves to be at a disadvantage.”

Song predicts that even if the North agreed to discuss the nuclear issue, there would be a high probability of them seeking agreement on a separate problem. “North Korea’s goal in agreeing to a summit meeting, aside from buying time on the nuclear issue, is to loosen current sanctions,” he went on.

Attempts to loosen the stubbornly tight sanctions ought to be seen, he said, in the context of North Korea’s efforts to improve its overall economy at a time when it is seeking to build a “strong and prosperous state” by 2012, improve the life of its citizens, and ensure a receptive atmosphere for the succession of Kim Jong Il’s son.

Song says he thinks the sanctions are effective, pointing out their “systematic and organized manner, as opposed to previous sanctions (UN Resolution 1718) that were lax and a mere formality."

Due to North Korea’s lack of normal market economic mechanisms, the government has hitherto used other means such as drug trafficking and weapons sales to obtain foreign currency. However, since UN Resolution 1874 these means have largely been cut off, and the prospect of obtaining funds through Mt. Geumgang tours and the Kaesong Industrial Complex look slim. As a result, Kim Jong Il’s slush fund is beginning to run dry.

Ultimately, though, Song doubts the possibility of the North, which claims that its nuclear program is a result of the U.S.’ hostile policy, having talks with the South that result in real progress towards denuclearization, “The problem thus far has not been the lack of denuclearization promises” he said, “but the lack of real steps toward actual disarmament.”

Song thinks South Korea needs to be tough, too, “If North Korea merely pays lip service to denuclearization, then South Korea can do the same when it comes to aid.”

North Korea has not only violated the North-South Joint Declaration, but has also breached the terms of agreements reached in the six-party talks such as the September 19 Joint Statement and the February 13 Agreement, he said.

So, Song believes that reciprocal steps are necessary, a declaration for a declaration and a promise for a promise. He advises South Korea to learn from the lessons of Israel, which he says has adhered to fundamental principles toward Arab countries.

There have been countless Middle East peace declarations and promises, and Israel has never side-stepped a single one, Song believes. Rather, when promises are not fulfilled, Israel refuses to move forward, and when Arab states strike with terror or break the peace, Israel unapologetically levies sanctions.

Song thinks that North Korea’s current economic difficulties indeed represent a difficult situation for the authorities in Pyongyang as they are trying to prepare for a smooth hereditary succession.

He said, “Hereditary succession is an occasion where North Korea needs to pull out all the congratulatory stops, but the state’s economic problems coupled with international sanctions make things difficult. In such a situation, it will be hard to transfer power.”