[imText1]It has been projected that it will be difficult for China to persist with financial sanctions on North Korea beyond late 2007 or early 2008.
After the U.N. North Korea resolution was passed, there has been much interest on whether China will also agree to the resolution. In a telephone interview with the DailyNK, Professor Han Suk Hee of Yonsei University revealed that for now, it is likely China will adjust to supporting the U.S. and agree to the measures of the resolution.
Professor Han said, “There is a high possibility that China will place severe reductions on grants, however it is unlikely that the grants will be obliterated completely” and explained that, “If grants are discontinued, North Korea’s food crisis will only worsen, defectors will be deeply concerned and China will be greatly burdened.”
Further he analyzed, “If China does place strict financial sanctions on North Korea, it will be difficult for North Korea to survive 2008. However, with the upcoming 2008 Beijing Olympics, it is likely China will want to resolve the North Korea nuclear issue before then.”
“Unlikely to release financial sanctions on North Korea who experimented with nukes”
In regards contrasting acts to the earlier missile launch with Kim Jong Il sending a shock interview special envoy to China’s prodigal, he analyzed, “It is likely that apologies were made for detaining China from schedule as a result of strengthening North Korean nuke experiments” and because “North Korea no longer wants a deteriorating relationship with China.”
In response to North Korea’s prior settlement of returning to the 6-Party Talks and their request to the U.S. to remove its financial sanctions he said, “It is difficult for the U.S. to accept North Korea’s request. Even prior to the nuke experiment, the U.S. would not release the sanctions. It would be impossible for the financial sanctions to be removed after the nuke experiments.” Further he explained, “For the U.S. to release the financial sanctions, North Korea must first give the U.S. a gift. However in North Korea’s position, there is nothing to give.”
He said, “Having conducted nuclear experiments, it is unlikely that North Korea will surrender its nukes,” and claimed, “The 6-Party Talks which were created to solve the North Korea nuclear issue is merely a light on a wild apricot. The 6-Party Talks have indifferently failed.”
Professor Han revealed, “China will be leaning strongly towards foreign strengths to solve the North Korea nuke issue.” However “the issue will not be easy to resolve. The only solution in solving this issue is for change in the North Korean regime.”
“U.S. plea to China, to urge change in the Kim Jong Il regime”
In addition, he said, “In the end, the U.S. will try to persuade China to make changes to the Kim Jong Il regime,” and claimed, “The U.S. has made offers to China that it wasn’t concerned if the next government was a new government, just as long as the Kim Jong Il was eradicated.”
Regarding the measures by China to convince North Korea to return to the 6-Party Talks, he said, “It appears that measures to isolate North Korea with oil supplies will not be made,” and “If oil supplies were to be discontinued, it is likely that nuke experiments would have been made long ago.”
In response to actions taken by China in the case North Korea launched another nuke experiment and did not return to the 6-Party Talks, he said, “If this did occur, we could conclude that there is no further reason to protect North Korea and in addition to discontinuing oil supplies, more severe sanctions would be placed. Nevertheless, China is not likely to agree to the measures of U.N. military sanctions on North Korea.”
In forecasting the North Korea-China relationship he speculated, “North Korea and China are said to be a blood allegiances to the point that the phrase alliance is not appropriate. As long as North Korea’s basis is beyond the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, it will not change its policy. In the future, rather than a position of good will, it is likely North Korea will be placed in a disadvantageous position.”
