2. Popular uprising due to the economic climate growing slowly more likely
Currently, much of North Korea’s official economy is moribund, and most citizens survive on trade in one form or another. This chronic economic crisis coupled to the expansion of market forces, a key locus for the flow of outside information, not only increases dissatisfaction against the regime but also raises the possibility of anti-regime groups being formed by the people.
Thus, many North Korean defectors consider it likely that if Kim Jong Eun lays down another disastrous policy like the currency swap while failing to alleviate the economic crisis to any meaningful extent, the result could be civic disturbances on a surprising scale.
Capitalist thought processes spreading through the market and the willingness of a younger generation raised on outside information and foreign dramas to resist the regime are also crucial factors here. It is unlikely that that younger generation will follow Kim Jong Eun blindly, as their parents and grandparents did, while conflict between classes is becoming another source of social tension as wealth inequality grows.
However, experts agree that it is not going to be easy to transform this aggravation and hardship into real change.
“The succession is progressing rapidly, regardless of whether the North Korean citizens accept Kim Jong Eun,” Professor Kim Yeon Su of National Defense University in Seoul conceded. “However, it is difficult to foresee dramatic change. Nevertheless, if Kim Jong Eun does not reform and open the country and conflict in the system worsens and accumulates, the chance of sudden change, such as through a popular uprising, is still open.”
Park Hyung Jun of Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) agreed, saying, “Kim Jong Eun’s popularity is low due to the ongoing economic crisis and strict crackdowns on the people. In the meantime, since sources of instability like negative public opinion in North Korea have always existed, car crashes could occur during the succession process to Kim Jong Eun.”
“In the case of North Korea, where extreme suppression of resistance to the system is ongoing, there is a higher possibility of a Romanian-style sudden overturning of the established order rather than a pre-prepared revolution,” one anonymous North Korea expert concurred. “If North Korea cruelly suppresses protests or demonstrations related to livelihoods, trouble could occur due to the increased willingness to resist measures with which they disagree.”
