South Korea’s Lee Myung Bak administration is two years old today. So now is a great time to ask: has its North Korea policy been effective for the last two years?

The Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) has used this anniversary to survey public opinion in South Korea on the matter. Three significant results stand out: 58% of those surveyed agree with the policy overall, 84% approve of the “Grand Bargain” concept, and 56% believe North Korea is the cause of Korean Peninsula hostility. Four years ago, only 25% thought North Korea was the hostile party. So then, has the Lee administration policy been successful? It appears so.

The obvious reasons why the South Korean people think more negatively of North Korea than they once did are the nuclear tests, long-range missile launches, shooting of a South Korean tourist at Mt. Geumgang and recent, memorable provocations in the West Sea. Some experts have concluded that the impetus in inter-Korean relations has finally been taken back under President Lee’s watch. Is this assessment justified?

People have a tendency to think that frequency of contact between North and South is the standard by which to assess the quality of the inter-Korean relationship. For example, how much dialogue is had; how much money is invested in economic cooperation projects; how many people visit North Korean tourist spots; how many inter-Korean events are held per year... as though this represents the total value of relations.

However, though these are useful conditions by which to judge the inter-Korean situation, they are neither the only ones nor even sufficient ones.

In order to really judge how effective South Korean policy is in shaping the inter-Korean relationship, one has to take note of the following three points: (1) how successfully South Korea’s policies weaken North Korea’s hard-line militarism; (2) how effective they are in spreading market elements in North Korean society; and (3) how much they contribute to opening and reform.

However, the Kim Dae Jung and Roh Mu Hyun administrations tried to put inter-Korean relations in and of themselves in the center, so they focused on how many times North and South met in order to show off “good relations” to the South Korean people. However, this was a long way from the core of the problem. Dialogue alone is not able to solve all Korean Peninsula problems.

Therefore, South Korea lost its leverage in the relationship and ended up being dragged around by North Korea in every regard, so much so that the North even felt able to dispatch a low-level adviser, Kwon Ho Woong, to ministerial-level talks with the South Korean Minister of Unification.

After this kind of insult, the Roh Mu Hyun administration tried to gloss over the reality of the inter-Korean situation, saying that it would continue to pursue the momentum of the dialogue.

From this point of view, the two years of the Lee administration’s North Korea policy have been successful; Seoul has taken back the leverage in inter-Korean relations by maintaining principled policies. Although this administration’s officials have not met the North Korean authorities that frequently, that is not the point. This wrestling back of initiative is more significant.

How the Lee administration achieved it is important to note; first-and-foremost by restoring the South Korea-U.S. alliance, which is the key to undermining the traditional North Korean trick of isolating South Korea by communicating with the U.S.

If the Lee administration wants to be evaluated well by the people after the next two years, it must maintain its principled policy on North Korea and not use North Korean issues in domestic politics for the ruling party’s benefit.

In terms of the mooted inter-Korean Summit, the same applies. If President Lee sees any progress in denuclearization, human rights and/or the opening up of North Korea, a summit may be appropriate. Otherwise, the Lee administration should dismiss it without debate.

Whether or not this government’s North Korea policy continues to be judged a success by the people of South Korea will depend ultimately on its degree of ongoing sincerity.