On July 6th, 1994, shortly before his death and with East Asia deeply mired in a nuclear crisis, Kim Il Sung declared, not for the first time, that international sanctions would never change his or North Korea’s attitude. 20 years have passed since Kim Il Sung left those last words and an agreement was signed in Geneva. Since then, numerous other events have come and gone. Kim’s son is gone too, and his grandson is trying to impose his grandfather’s will and govern the country that way.
But while people come, people go and time passes by, there are certain things that very rarely change. One is North Korea’s nuclear and missile ambitions. North Korea successfully launched its intercontinental ballistic missile with a 10,000km range, the ‘Unha-3,’ last December, thus becoming an ICBM-possessing state. The UN Security Council once again adopted a resolution on January 23rd, adding to existing sanctions.
The North Korean authorities, as if in waiting, responded firmly just two hours after the UN Security Council resolution, and the next day issued a second, even more bellicose, statement through the National Defense Commission. In it, they declared the abandonment of denuclearization and nullification of the September 19th Joint Statement, denounced all resolutions and declared the end of denuclearization talks. Moreover, they even threw away the euphemistic language of “developing outer space” and “artificial satellites,” preferring to admit that missiles were the goal.
North Korea also hinted rather blatantly at an impending nuclear test, declaring that Korean Peninsula denuclearization is not denuclearization at all. They even attacked China and Russia, who had backed the UN resolution, calling their votes in favor an instance of “blind hand-raising.”
Our sanctions must really be weak, it seems. When luxuries are banned the authorities can purchase hundreds of Mercedes-Benz to give away to cadres, and when an agency appears on a UN black list they give it another name. Individuals just need to replace passports and ID cards, or become different people altogether. If their bank accounts are at risk then they just carry wads of cash.
Obviously, China’s role in the execution of UN sanctions is crucial. In other words, we need to influence China if we are finally to implement sanctions properly. And what can we do to influence China? We must find the red lines that China harbors in their relations with North Korea, then we can start thinking from there. Let’s consider the possibilities.
War with China? It’s unlikely. Another Korean War where China intervenes on North Korea’s side? Again, not possible. The collapse of the North Korean regime and massive outflow of North Korean refugees? That would depend on North Korea. North Korean provocations aimed at South Korea or the U.S.? We already know that this is not a red line for China, for it has long since been crossed.
Therefore, what can we do to really get to China? It doesn’t take long to figure it out, because there is only one thing there. It is the nuclear domino effect. That is the only way to get China to impose sanctions on North Korea properly.
* This is an edited version of a Guest Column that originally appeared in Korean on Daily NK on January 25th.
* The viewpoints expressed in Guest Columns are not necessarily those of Daily NK.
