Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) analysis of North Korea's 2011 New Year editorial asserts that North Korea's apparent desire for talks is aimed at garnering economic support.
KINU anticipates that Kim Jong Eun and Kim Jong Il, along with Kim Kyung Hee, hope to use “on-the-spot guidance visits to manufacturing facilities to affect a light industrial revolution”, followed by using the transformation of the country into an economic power to justify the hereditary succession.
However, North Korea's claim that it “must proactively strive to create an atmosphere of dialogue and cooperation between ourselves and South Korea,” reflects the economic difficulties preventing this revival, KINU says. It believes the explanation lies in a desire on the part of North Korea to see how much economic support it can get from the South that might aid in maintaining domestic stability.
Continuing from this there is the possibility that Kim Jong Il might use the 20th anniversary of his own ascendancy to the position of supreme commander on December 24th, 2011 as an opportunity to pass the title and authority over to his son, the report claims.
At the 19th anniversary banquet just gone by, Kim Jong Il took the unusual step of celebrating with high level military officials including Kim Jong Eun. This, according to KINU, may have been a measure to praise Kim's own military achievements and gradually transfer military power to Kim Jong Eun.
On the other side of the DMZ, the KINU report stresses the need for South Korea to use North Korea's defensive position in North-South relations as an opportunity to be proactive in dialogue and expand its influence over the North this year, while also taking the chance to ease tensions.
In conclusion, KINU predicts, “North Korea's 2011 New Year's editorial demonstrates the need to prepare for both war and peace; from here on, military-first politics, strengthening of national defense and military adventurism will continue to be at the core of North Korean policy, and we expect that North Korea will continue to build up Kim Jong Eun’s achievements as they work to stabilize the government in waiting.”
It also claims that North Korea can and may use its hard-line policy towards South Korea to ease the future government into power by reinforcing cohesion in Military-first circles and maximizing control over the citizenry.