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2017.08.04
| Won | Pyongyang | Sinuiju | Hyesan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 8,130 | 8,110 | 8,125 |
| Rice Price | 5,770 | 5,740 | 5,800 |
The news that U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asked Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo to ensure that North Korea not cause any problems on the Korean Peninsula during the G20 Seoul Summit next week has underscored concerns that Pyongyang may move to draw international attention during the event.
The Washington Post reported on October 31st that Clinton had spoken with Dai at the southern Chinese city of Sanya last Saturday, quoting an anonymous U.S. official as saying, "We're right on the verge of one of the most important diplomatic functions to have occurred on the Korean Peninsula. We have made it very clear to China that we expect it to weigh in on the need [for North Korea] to in no way take provocative steps."
Despite North Korea’s ongoing peace offensive aimed at the resumption of Six-Party Talks and improving inter-Korean relations, South Korea and the U.S. continue to demand a change of attitude before they will respond in kind, raising the possibility that North Korea might seek to resume the discussion through provocative actions during the G20 Summit, when the attention of the international community will be focused on the Korean Peninsula.
According to one South Korean source, "The U.S. is paying attention to the fact that until now North Korea has made provocations to overcome its difficulties like international isolation and sanctions. This is to indirectly convey the message to North Korea that there should not be any provocation prior to the G20."
Concerns about North Korean provocations were raised by North Korea’s firing of two bullets in the Demilitarized Zone between the two countries on October 29th, although that is officially considered to have been an accident.
The gunfire incident occurred right after the Ministry of National Defense rejected a North Korean proposal for inter-Korean working-level military talks on October 19th. At the time, a North Korean spokesperson threatened, "Regarding South Korea's reckless provocations and publicly evading implementing the agreements signed by both parties, our army will proceed with a merciless physical response."
Accordingly, the Ministry of National Defense has raised its military alert level with the possibility of a G20 Meeting provocation in mind. The military has been on its highest level of military combat readiness since October 29th, and has prepared to combat North Korean provocations by categorizing the threats faced into eight categories.
The risk of provocation is very real. In 1987, some months before the 1988 Seoul Olympics, North Korea agents destroyed KAL Flight 858, killing 115 people. On a similar note, the North provoked the 2nd West Sea Battle during the 2002 Korea/Japan World Cup. Experts say that Kim Jong Il thinks being ignored is politically worse than being punished, and this is why North Korea continues to provoke the outside world despite the fact that it does not appear to be a profitable course of action.
If true, analysts presuppose that the G20 Summit, an international event which will see the leaders of all the Six-Party Talks participants gathered in Seoul, represents the best place for North Korea to try and force the international community’s hand.
However, primarily because any big provocation would be detrimental to its relations with China, North Korea is only likely to select lower intensity actions. Kim Jong Il almost certainly recognizes that China will struggle to defend him if a military provocation happens during the G20 Summit period.
During a phone interview with The Daily NK, Park Jong Cheol, a senior researcher with the Korea Institute for National Unification anticipated, "There is the possibility that North Korea will commit a low level provocation so as to grasp the initiative in inter-Korean relations, rather than a very serious action which would arouse international anger. During the G20 Summit Talk period, they could notify us of their existence through an incursion across the Northern Limit Line or additional gunfire."
An anonymous researcher from the National Policy Institute agreed, saying, "It is not easy for North Korea to issue a provocation since they have to stabilize the third generation hereditary succession with the support of China. However, there is the possibility that they will want to point out that they are still a menacing figure during the period when the G20 Summit, an international event, is being held, so that the U.S. will come to the discussion table."
The Washington Post reported on October 31st that Clinton had spoken with Dai at the southern Chinese city of Sanya last Saturday, quoting an anonymous U.S. official as saying, "We're right on the verge of one of the most important diplomatic functions to have occurred on the Korean Peninsula. We have made it very clear to China that we expect it to weigh in on the need [for North Korea] to in no way take provocative steps."
Despite North Korea’s ongoing peace offensive aimed at the resumption of Six-Party Talks and improving inter-Korean relations, South Korea and the U.S. continue to demand a change of attitude before they will respond in kind, raising the possibility that North Korea might seek to resume the discussion through provocative actions during the G20 Summit, when the attention of the international community will be focused on the Korean Peninsula.
According to one South Korean source, "The U.S. is paying attention to the fact that until now North Korea has made provocations to overcome its difficulties like international isolation and sanctions. This is to indirectly convey the message to North Korea that there should not be any provocation prior to the G20."
Concerns about North Korean provocations were raised by North Korea’s firing of two bullets in the Demilitarized Zone between the two countries on October 29th, although that is officially considered to have been an accident.
The gunfire incident occurred right after the Ministry of National Defense rejected a North Korean proposal for inter-Korean working-level military talks on October 19th. At the time, a North Korean spokesperson threatened, "Regarding South Korea's reckless provocations and publicly evading implementing the agreements signed by both parties, our army will proceed with a merciless physical response."
Accordingly, the Ministry of National Defense has raised its military alert level with the possibility of a G20 Meeting provocation in mind. The military has been on its highest level of military combat readiness since October 29th, and has prepared to combat North Korean provocations by categorizing the threats faced into eight categories.
The risk of provocation is very real. In 1987, some months before the 1988 Seoul Olympics, North Korea agents destroyed KAL Flight 858, killing 115 people. On a similar note, the North provoked the 2nd West Sea Battle during the 2002 Korea/Japan World Cup. Experts say that Kim Jong Il thinks being ignored is politically worse than being punished, and this is why North Korea continues to provoke the outside world despite the fact that it does not appear to be a profitable course of action.
If true, analysts presuppose that the G20 Summit, an international event which will see the leaders of all the Six-Party Talks participants gathered in Seoul, represents the best place for North Korea to try and force the international community’s hand.
However, primarily because any big provocation would be detrimental to its relations with China, North Korea is only likely to select lower intensity actions. Kim Jong Il almost certainly recognizes that China will struggle to defend him if a military provocation happens during the G20 Summit period.
During a phone interview with The Daily NK, Park Jong Cheol, a senior researcher with the Korea Institute for National Unification anticipated, "There is the possibility that North Korea will commit a low level provocation so as to grasp the initiative in inter-Korean relations, rather than a very serious action which would arouse international anger. During the G20 Summit Talk period, they could notify us of their existence through an incursion across the Northern Limit Line or additional gunfire."
An anonymous researcher from the National Policy Institute agreed, saying, "It is not easy for North Korea to issue a provocation since they have to stabilize the third generation hereditary succession with the support of China. However, there is the possibility that they will want to point out that they are still a menacing figure during the period when the G20 Summit, an international event, is being held, so that the U.S. will come to the discussion table."
