Rumors that Kim Jong Il is about to make a long-awaited visit to China are building once again, not least because what is seen as the final barrier to the resumption of the Six-Party Talks, namely another bilateral meeting between the U.S. and North Korea, shows no signs of occurring in the near future.
Similar rumors have been cropping up in the Japanese media since the beginning of the year, and have shown no signs of abating this month. But now those rumors seem to have turned to fact among diplomats in the South Korean embassy in Beijing, according to Foreign Ministry officials in Seoul. The South Korean government, basing its judgment on the domestic and international environment surrounding North Korea, also thinks it likely that Kim Jong Il will visit China in the relatively near future.
Those who believe he will go tend to base their assessment on the economic situation within North Korea, which continues to worsen after the failure of the currency redenomination. They observe that in order to control the chaos caused by the currency redenomination and subsequent market regulations, North Korea needs to acquire financial support, which can be garnered most easily from China.
Indeed, on the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the North Korea and China in 2009, Beijing agreed to supply a broad range of economic assistance. However, the majority of the money was concentrated on investments in infrastructure. Thus, experts assume that Kim will go to China this time in the hope of receiving food and energy assistance.
Also, Kim will know it is to his advantage to reinforce the alliance between North Korea and China, and check in with his closest ally prior to the resumption of the Six-Party Talks. Additionally, this would help Kim to control rumors of North Korean systemic instability which have begun to gain credence recently.
Additionally, Yoon Duk Min, a professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and Security, told The Daily NK he expects that, “North Korea will comment on the issue of returning to the Six-Party Talks through China. Although a working level discussion might take place between the United States and North Korea, the important details will be conveyed through China.”
On the other hand, there are also many experts and officials who doubt the veracity of the rumors, not least because they have been proven false before. The doubters point to Kim’s health condition above all; Kim has been suffering from the complications of a stroke he apparently suffered in 2008, although he is said to be recovering.
In any case, if Kim is really going to go to China, the biggest question is when.
In diplomatic circles, the visit was expected in mid- to late-March, when the National People’s Congress and National People’s Political Consultative Conference, the biggest events in the Chinese political calendar, were over. If Kim were accounting for those events, it would make sense for him to visit late this month.
Commenting on this, one anonymous South Korean government official said, “Since everything depends on North Korea’s decision, it is difficult to predict the timing. But the idea (of Kim visiting China between the 25th and 30th March) seems reasonable.”
He added, “Kim Jong Il visiting China would be a positive signal for the Six-Party Talks.”
Meanwhile, Yu Myung Hwan, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, is scheduled to have a conference with Yang Jiechi, the Chinese Foreign Minister, on current North Korean nuclear issues on March 18.
