U.S. Special Representative to North Korea Stephen Bosworth's upcoming visit to Pyongyang on the 8th of next month is leading experts to wonder what is next for U.S.-DPRK relations.
U.S.-DPRK relations have been riding high since behind the scenes contact between the two sides last month. Above all, a change in the North's position is clear. Taking an active approach to dialogue with the U.S., North Korea apparently sent a message to the U.S. suggesting a return to the Six-Party Talks.
A high-level official in the U.S. Department of State released the news on the 20th, "North Korea has suggested to the U.S. that it will return to the Six-Party Talks."
The U.S., from the basic idea that there can be no bilateral talks which are not based on complete denuclearization, has taken a step back and is now trying to save the North's face by suggesting a peace agreement. Until recently, the Obama administration had avoided discussing the normalization of U.S.-North Korea relations or a peace agreement altogether, despite North Korean hints.
However, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, on a visit to Afghanistan, said on the 20th that if North Korea chose verifiable denuclearization, then discussions of all topics such as normalizing U.S.-North Korea relations, a peace agreement and economic cooperation are possible.
But the reality is that the gap between the U.S. and the North position still remains large, so the chance of real progress is not huge.
Both sides are trying to seize the diplomatic nettle.
Yoon Duk Min, a professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, told The Daily NK on the 22nd, "The U.S. has made this gesture after considering how it can achieve progress in its talks with North Korea. The North wants to enter a dialogue phase by creating an environment of appeasement."
Professor Yoon pointed out, "Although an atmosphere of appeasement is being promoted between the U.S. and North Korea, the possibility remains that the dialogue between the two countries will return to its starting point when the North brings up various conditions, as in the past."
Currently, the U.S., at the same time as fulfilling its diplomatic obligation to provide the first step towards resuming the Six-Party Talks, seems to be putting its eggs in the basket of the Bosworth delegation¡¯s trip to the North in order to find out Kim Jong Il's true intention on denuclearization.
But the U.S. did stick to its principle of taking the first step towards the North's return to the Six-Party Talks. The U.S., after establishing a clear policy of dialogue with the North in September, only revealed its plan to hold bilateral talks in December after receiving a message from North Korea stating the possibility of returning to the Talks.
Consequently, the U.S. will only act positively after the North reassesses the effectiveness of nuclear possession of its own accord and changes its stance on the Six-Party Talks.
However, if the North does not change and tries to use its dialogue with the U.S. as a means of negotiation, then the gap between the sides will only increase.
Since its second nuclear test, the North has been completely isolated internationally. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited North Korea last month and promised to send aid to Kim Jong Il, allowing the North to breathe a small sigh of relief, but the UN Resolution has largely sealed the North's outside activities at source.
From North Korea's perspective, it is necessary to act on the defensive front, calling for a security guarantee and economic aid while blunting UN sanctions by establishing dialogue with the U.S.
According to its domestic situation, North Korea might be able to change its policy on nuclear weapons.
One expert believes that U.S.-North Korea dialogue could move up a level through the visit by Bosworth.
Ko Yu Hwan, a professor at Donguk University, told Daily NK, "A peace agreement and the normalization of U.S.-North Korea relations proposed by the U.S. were what the North wanted. Both sides have agreed to the goal of denuclearization, so the possibility of achieving progress in the upcoming dialogue is higher than in the past."
However, he pointed out, "There is a high possibility that the situation could change regarding the give-and-take between the U.S. and North Korea. Moreover, bilateral talks between the two sides require deliberation with the remaining countries to the Six-Party Talks, so the limitations are clear."
In particular, he emphasized, "Now, the situation is not so great in the North due to the deterioration in Kim Jong Il's health and UN sanctions, but nuclear possession can be defended anytime."
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