With the U.S. expected to officially announce the upcoming itinerary of U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Bosworth, some kind of change to the relationship between the U.S. and North Korea is anticipated. However, even if dialogue is resumed, reaching agreement on the North's return to the Six-Party Talks and other matters will not be easy.

Jeffrey Bader, the senior director for Asian affairs at the White House National Security Council (NSC), said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on the 8th that Kim Jong Il has missed an opportunity to take advantage of U.S. President Barack Obama's early openness to meeting directly with the U.S.’ adversaries. Nevertheless, he said that Washington is prepared to send Bosworth to North Korea, but only if the North understands that such contact must set the stage for the scrapping of its nuclear program.

Previously, on the 5th, Bosworth told a press conference that the position of the U.S. government regarding U.S.-DPRK bilateral dialogue would soon be decided. He explained that President Barack Obama would make a decision about the timeframe shortly after his return from state visits to the region.

President Obama is planning to visit China, Japan and South Korea starting on the 13th, and to participate in an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Singapore. During his visit, there are expected to be discussions on the North Korean nuclear issue, including U.S.-DRPK dialogue.

On a related note, South Korea’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Yu Myung Hwan introduced a possible timeframe for U.S.-North Korea talks, “The dialogue will most likely take place at the end of the year or the beginning of next year. What is important is for the U.S. to not rush into things.”

However, even if dialogue is resumed, the possibility is high that tension between the two sides will predominate once the framework and agenda for negotiations are opened for discussion, so prospects seem rather grim.

First of all, there has been no shift in the U.S.’ position that its dialogue with North Korea should be the precursor to restoring the North to the Six-Party Talks. James Steinberg, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, emphasized at a recent event sponsored by the Center for American Progress (CAP) that the U.S. was prepared to hold bilateral talks with North Korea, but, these discussions would not be negotiations surrounding issues. In other words, actual discussions must be held only when the North returns to the Six-Party Talks.

Regarding this, Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Japan Economic Times) cited several sources on U.S.-North Korea relations on the 8th, noting that North Korea, during behind the scenes contacts with the U.S., has demanded four or five high-level bilateral meetings as its condition for returning to the Talks. In turn, the U.S. said it would negotiate when the North returns to the Talks and commits to adhering to the joint declaration of the 2005 Six-Party Talks, which specifies denuclearization.

The general belief of the South Korean government and North Korea experts is that, even if dialogue is resumed, due to the divergent interests of both sides in bilateral talks between the U.S. and North Korea, the prospect of the North returning to the Six-Party Talks is not so bright.

Minister Yu recently predicted that, even in the case of the resumption of dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea, the North’s return to the Six-Party Talks will not go smoothly, noting, "When the dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea resumes, China will convene the Six-Party Talks after a while. Since both sides are in a dubious position, China needs to intervene.”

Namgung Young, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul, evaluated the situation in a phone conversation with The Daily NK, saying, “The U.S.’ decision to engage in dialogue with North Korea is based on its dual-track approach of dialogue and sanctions. If the conditions for dialogue are right then dialogue is inevitable.”

However, he forecasted, "When looking at the strict U.S. stance, the future does not look so bright. It [the dialogue] will serve as an opportunity for the international community, including the U.S., to set the direction for its response regarding the nuclear weapons issue.”

Lee Sang Hyun, a Senior Researcher at the Sejong Institute, said, “The U.S. has made several compromises, such as deciding to engage in one-on-one dialogue before the Six-Party Talks, but has continued to issue the basic message that the North must return to the Six-Party Talks. There has been no change in the U.S.’ position that it will not engage in talks for the sake of having talks.”

He added, "On the other hand, North Korea, while saving face by meeting with the U.S., will most likely propose complex conditions. Such a demand by the North is not too different from its past negotiating pattern of making gains through ‘push and pull.’”