North Korea conducted its second nuclear test at 9:54 A.M on Monday. The Blue House swiftly convened an emergency meeting of the National Security Council. Chosun Central News Agency (KCNA) then stated, “The Republic (North Korea) successfully conducted a second underground nuclear test on May 25, 2009 as part of measures to strengthen its nuclear power in self-defense. This nuclear test was safely carried out in the light of the explosive power and manipulation of technology on a highly developed level.”
Although the time was unknown, and today is earlier than most people thought likely, the fact that North Korea planned to conduct a second nuclear test was common knowledge, admitted by North Korea itself. The question many people are asking, though, is why North Korea did it now.
First, it could be due to the domestic situation in the North.
Since Kim Jong Il’s illness, North Korea has faced many challenges to its domestic situation and stability. Especially, the Kim Jong Il regime has now moved to handle the third generation succession and it is causing tensions in the hierarchy.
For the proclaimed purpose of forging a strong and prosperous state by 2012, North Korea has recently consolidated the National Defense Commission and maintained its domestic power through personnel changes, in order to bed in the succession ahead of the one hundredth anniversary of Kim Il Sung’s birth. However, disagreements on the appointment of a successor to Kim Jong Il within the ruling family or inner circles might well remain. Advancing the date for the nuclear test could have been because the North was trying to clear up disagreements with a unifying hard-line move.
Second, North Korea is trying to press the U.S. to hold a bilateral meeting with the North after being acknowledged as a nuclear-armed state.
Since Kim Jong Il’s illness, the North has been issuing threats and challenging the international community. The second nuclear test is an act cut from the same cloth. At the same time it is an appeal to China to act as an intermediary between the U.S. and North Korea for a bilateral meeting, since China needs and wants to have calm and peaceful neighbors on its eastern flank.
Third, Kim Jong Il wants to see South Korean social conflict. He may even be embarking on a plan to “kill” Lee Myung Bak, over and above the “taming” that is standard North Korean negotiating strategy with any new adversary. At this time, during the period of mourning for former President Roh Moo Hyun, Kim may see weakness in the Lee administration. Through this nuclear test, he may be pushing the South to resurrect some form of engagement policy.
Therefore, the South’s administration should consider this a domestic emergency, resolve to avoid domestic conflict and revive the TCOG (Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group）with the U.S., Japan and South Korea. Seoul should also pay close attention to any future Chinese actions, and any disagreements that arise between China and the U.S.
First and foremost, the government should not allow conflict between pro- and anti-government factions in South Korean society to spread at this time of crisis.
