After capturing images of North Korea’s acts, seemingly preparing for the launch of a Taepodong-2 missile, U.S. and South Korean intelligence services are watching carefully what North Korea does next.
As the Taepondong-2 missile, which can reach the U.S. mainland, was reportedly transported into the missile launch site, experts on North Korean issues suggested that it is to harness the Obama administration’s attention by raising tensions on the Korean Peninsula and to gain the upper hand in upcoming negotiations with the U.S.
It stems from the same roots as the recent announcement by the North Korean Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland about the invalidation of all political and military agreements and the earlier statement by the General Staff of the People’s Army about taking a confrontational posture towards South Korea.
President of the Sejong Institute Song Dae Sung explained the current North Korean attitudes and aims, that, “Through inspiring a negative mood on the Korean Peninsula and deepening South Korean social divides on North Korean issues, North Korea is trying to lead the Lee Myung Bak administration to shift its policy towards North Korea and further to draw the attention of the Obama administration, so that the U.S. will enact a direct dialogue with the North.”
“As I predicted before, an aggressive incursion across the Northern Limit Line or a missile launch are surely possible. On the other hand, it may not be a direct attack but a threat to ratchet up tension, as the North did in 2006,” Song said.
Head of the Committee for Defense Issue Studies Kim Tae Woo said, “North Korea has been showing ‘fear’ through its policy towards the South and expectation in its policy towards the U.S. The missile card the North plays this time around is not a threat against the U.S., but a tool to raise tensions on the Peninsula.”
According to Sankei Shinbun, a Japanese newspaper, “A missile launch could be possible within one or two months.”
Professor of Korean National Defense University Kim Yon Soo stated that, “We have to pay attention to the fact that a new missile launching site was constructed on the west coast. It may be quite a modern facility, so it means North Korea’s missile development capacity has also been enhanced.”
Therefore, this current activity is presumably a subject of interest to the Obama administration, which is paying much attention to weapons of mass destruction. In July, 2006, North Korea made the U.S. join negotiations through its failed test of the Taepodong-2.
If North Korea launches a long-range missile, it will affect considerably the direction of the North Korean nuclear negotiations. This is because the missile issue, which has not been put on the table, may become a front page issue for the Six Party Talks.
Kim Tae Woo foresaw that, “By flaunting its apparent capacity to load a nuclear warhead on a long-range missile, North Korea is trying to keep the status of a nuclear state in the Six Party Talks.”
