Due to the sudden death of Kim Jong Il or weak leadership on the part of his successor, competitive political factions might appear in North Korea; not unlike the Chinese situation in the 1920s. Today there are those who have the desire for power but dare not challenge Kim Jong Il. If Kim Jong Il, the symbol of the regime, were to disappear, they would inevitably try to protect their power and property.

If a few military cliques willing to fight each other were to appear across a small territory like that of North Korea, they could surely be subdued by military power. However, given the South Korean atmosphere, South Korean parents would not be likely to send their children to the dangerous battle fields of North Korea. If those same military cliques were to hold nuclear warheads, even China would be reluctant to dispatch troops to face them.

In that case, military cliques might share out spheres of influence on the northern half of the Korean Peninsula while threatening with WMD one or all of South Korea, China, the U.S. and Japan in order to wrest economic aid from them. This chaos might or might not last long, and could end up in the foundation of a pro-Chinese regime or co-opted unification with China.

This scenario among the prior four scenarios is the most dangerous one. In this case the living situation of North Korean ordinary folks would be more difficult and dangerous then during the March of the Tribulation in the late-1990s.

Competition between military cliques has the potential to cause an unimaginable catastrophe on the entire Korean Peninsula. For instance, countless people might die or evacuate the country, while inevitably the surrounding powerful countries would intervene. In the end, even the possibility of nuclear war, however low, might come into being.

We have to analyze objectively North Korean changes

Now we have analyzed four scenarios for North Korea. We don��t know if the future is running in an unexpected direction or towards a fusion of two or more of the four, for example a reform attempt causing inadvertent social chaos and then a pro-Chinese regime establishing itself and finally unifying the northern half of the peninsula with China proper.

Although South Korea does not have a vast array of ways in which to influence the future of North Korea, it should not sit on its hands. South Korea needs to try and present a good impression to the North Korean people, establish good linkages with the North, learn about them, and ultimately prepare for the inevitable changes to come.

Additionally, South Korea has a duty to analyze objectively the underlying trends that fuel North Korean changes. Unfortunately, during the last Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun administrations, South Korean political elites and ordinary people fell under an illusion and harbored a sentimental expectation of unification with North Korea, but now we must analyze objectively, with balance.