It was well known that Chinese advances into North Korea have been getting increasingly active. It¡¯s not so difficult to understand the purpose behind China¡¯s attempting to go into the Korean Peninsula. First, China needs a buffer zone facing the U.S. Secondly, it recognizes North Korea¡¯s political crisis, the proliferation of WMD and a possible massive influx of refugees as serious elements threatening its safety. Finally, China wants to use the mineral products, transportation system and distribution network in North Korea for its economy development.

Therefore, it is natural that China, which does not want any unrest or Korean unification through co-option into the South, might welcome the establishment of a pro-Chinese regime.

There are two kinds of lead-ins to the establishment of a pro-Chinese regime. First, if political unrest arises in North Korea, the Chinese People¡¯s Liberation Army, in collusion with North Korean power, could politically control North Korean society under the pretext of a ¡°peace keeping project in the Korean Peninsula.¡± The other case is this: before this crisis comes, China might assist the pro-Chinese factions within the Pyongyang leadership to grasp control of the regime.

North Korean elites would likely welcome the Chinese interference because they neither want riots and social strife, nor the losing of their privileges and being punished under a unified government by South Korea. However, the interference would not be like the Japanese annexation of Korea in 1910, in which China would occupy the North Korean territory, but more like the relationship between the eastern European countries and the U.S.S.R., in which China would guarantee North Korean sovereignty and control it behind the curtain.

The result of this scenario would be similar to that of the first scenario, the Market Reform scenario. The pro-Chinese regime could not help but carry out market reform in the Chinese way. China would regulate other factions¡¯ defiance as well as support the regime with Chinese capital and experience. Despite the pro-Chinese satellite regime¡¯s governing, the lives of North Korean people might remarkably improve.

There are bright sides in this scenario, but from South Korean nationalists¡¯ perspective, it must be viewed as unacceptable. It is not clear if China will withdraw from North Korea, but this third scenario implies the eternal division in Korean Peninsula. The interference of China would deteriorate the international circumstance surrounding the Korean Peninsula and make Korea a close match ground for the powerful countries of the world, as it was in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.