Lately, the South Korean media have been saying that ��it is impossible to unify North Korea into South Korean territory,�� which means that unification in this way would cause a heavy economic burden to fall on South Korea and possible social collapse, based on the experience of the unification of East and West Germany. This concern is reasonable, I regret to say, for even what we don��t want can happen in the world.

There are two backdrops to unification in this way.

First, the North Korean regime might attempt to reform its society in the Chinese way; lessen the suppression of and look out for the people. However, the people would not use new opportunities as the reformers might have expected, but would demand more concessions from the regime, and consequently start anti-regime movements. That is a similar phenomenon to those that arose in the USSR and Eastern European around 20 years ago. Through this uprising a new democratic government would be born of the people��s power and it would pursue unification with the South. Seoul would not have any other choice but accept it.

However, in the other scenario the Northern regime might not reform itself, but unification by co-option into South Korea or the collapse of the regime would still be possible. Since the late-1990s, the control of the regime has been weakening. Information on South Korea and the outside world have been spreading over the country and fear of the regime has been faltering. Eventually, the potential power of political opposition to the regime might be enlarged to the extent that even a small incident could fatally injure the regime. It is clear that a tiny quarrel in a market or soccer stadium in a local city would be a heavy blow, which already has a weak supporting foundation, as we have been able to see from the history of the democratization movements in eastern European countries.

Although the collapse of the regime does not necessarily cause unification, the possibility of it being co-opted into South Korea after such a collapse is high. While it is true that the South Korean society and the government do not want unification by co-option in this way, if mass movements demanding immediate unification occur, Seoul could not but accept it. After the regime��s collapse, with the start of social unrest, it is inevitable that the South Korean government would manage the situation and face up to unification.

Reluctance to create unification by co-option is both strong and rational in South Korea. Although political and physical unification may be achieved, social inconsistencies between the South and the North would last a long time. Most North Korean people could work hard and diligently, but they would be involved only in unskilled work all their lives long because of lack of intellectual strength and experience. If they figure out this fact, they might feel antagonism towards South Korea. At the same time, the poor class of South Koreans would feel a lot of antipathy towards North Koreans because they would have to compete more intensively with them. The economic development of South Korea might be suspended temporarily and the standard of living might deteriorate because South Korea would be forced to invest enormously in North Korean restoration. The side- and after-effects would be various and also serious, so they would not be easily solved.

However, the co-option scenario has many downsides but also many advantages. Through this scenario, the freedom of the North Korean people, their physical living standards and educational circumstances would be improved much more swiftly than in other scenarios. Despite the inevitable conflicts between the South and the North, and inconsistencies, the negative results of the division of the Korean Peninsula could be completely overcome.

That being said, the possibility would be high that the newly unified Korea would become a target for the intervention of surrounding powerful countries.

Additionally, in the case of third (establishment of a pro-Chinese regime) and fourth scenarios (long term chaos), the Korean Peninsula would again become a battleground for competition between powerful countries.