▲ Flood suffers living in a tent ⓒ Yonhap News

Due to the heavy downpour which fell on all regions of North Korea since the 7th, the Inter-Korea Summit Talks was delayed and when the status of national flood disaster was promulgated, there has been the opinion that the flood damage can be a huge blow to the preservation of the North Korean regime.

Because the scope of damage has been significant, the threat felt by the civilians have climaxed. Due to the flood, several hundred human lives were injured, several tens of thousands homes and buildings were destroyed, and 11% of farmlands were swept away.

If the food shortage became worse and an epidemic becomes rampant due to the aftereffect of the flood, civilians reminiscent of the death by starvation in the mid-90s will increase. The reason for the North Korean authorities having publicized the facts of the early stage damages and have requested aid may be because they evaluated the potential danger for climax in civilians' unrest.

Not only the North Korean cabinet but the army has issued general mobilization orders and have come forward in the flood restoration project, but the extent of the damage is so large that a significant amount of time is estimated for restorations. The reason for the month delay of the Summit Talks is that that much time is needed for restorations.

A related member of the South Korean army, in an interview with the Yonhap News on the 18th, analyzed, "In accordance with the National Emergency Situation, holding the Summit Talks as planned was probably evaluated to be difficult and the North Korean guidance division is probably most worried about the present situation of the alienation in public sentiment."

One defector who entered South Korea last year said, "Due to the suspension of distribution by the nation, people have been barely getting by from sales or secret trade, but there should be quite a few people who have lost goods or their homes were destroyed on this flood, so they have nothing to eat immediately nor to do."

He also said, "When domestic homes were destroyed, tents have been built or people have been advised to stay at strangers' homes. There will probably not be an immediate solution. People would curse the heavens and when time passes, they may say, 'Nothing can be done because of Kim Jong Il.'"

The forecast is that there would not any damage to Kim Jong Il's political power. However, after the collapse of the distribution system, an influx of outside trends and an increase in individualism would have greatly increased the anti-Kim Jong Il sentiments. This phenomenon is to such an extent that among the North Korean citizens who visit China on visits to relatives, it is difficult to find those who call Kim Jong Il as the General.

In the case that the aftermath of the flood becomes long-term, the civilians, rather than the state's slogan, "Let us overcome national disasters," the alienation of the public sentiment faulting the disinterest of Kim Jong Il will probably rise.

Further, the serious blow to Pyongyang, the "revolutionary capital," from the flood will cast a negative influence on Kim Jong Il's charisma. Pyongyang is a "propagandistic city" which boasts the majesty of the communist country to the outside world, thus exaggerating the mythical existence of the top-level executives of North Korean power. The heart of North Korea falling to the flood can be an essential part for weakening the power of Kim Jong Il.

The North Korean authorities, acknowledging the civilians' unsettledness, has carried out emergency aid and is estimated to pour out their entire power in preventing death by starvation and infectious diseases. However, by looking at the practices so far, the provision of relief goods only went to around 30% of the civilians, besides the political organs and the army units. Also, after the flood, negative effects can be expected, if the North Korean authorities block the border, stresses control of citizens, or prevents the flow of the rice market.

In the process of distributing the relief goods, the prevalent abuse of power and graft by powerful authorities and their guards have increased the discontent of citizens and in the case that the number of starvation victims and epidemics spread, the damages can enlarge into an unexpected situation.