[imText1]North and South Korea agreed with the adoption of the content in the “Military Security Joint Agreement” to cooperate on a military security to experimentally run the Kyungui Line and the East Sea Line trains at the 5th General Officers Talks.
The joint agreement contains provisions such as ▲guarantee of tracks for the experimental operation of trains and road passage ▲ a reciprocal dispatch process at the time of entry of rail into the DMZ and the Military Demarcation Line ▲ guarantee of security procedures at the time of train’s entry into the DMZ.
The North, from the first day of the general officers talks, raised the issue of reestablishing NLL and the possibility was presented on the last day with the talks yielding little results. However, the North promised military security within one year and the North-South railway which was stalled for half a century was reopened temporarily.
◆ North cannot afford to miss economic support from the South = North Korea, even though it is one-time only, agreed to the military security for the experimental rail operations because of its pursuit of gains. If the experimental operations dissipate, the South’s economic support that will be lost is too hefty.
At the 13th North-South Economic Cooperation Exploration Committee (Economic Exploratory Committee) which was held in Pyongyang on the 22nd of last month, the South Korean side, after the experimental rail operations and the North’s February 13th agreement, agreed to provide 40,000 tons of rice ($152,000,000) and light industry raw materials ($80,000,000).
At the time, the North dealt actively with a collaborative underground resource development and light industrial raw material businesses. The North’s side requested that the light industrial raw materials be provided in the middle of May, but the South requested an extension in supporting light industry raw materials and experimental rail operations; a compromise was reached for the middle of June.
National Defense Research Institute’s National Defense Pending Team Chief Baek Seung Joo, in a phone conversation with Daily NK, provided the analysis: “North Korea, after the February 13th agreement, evaluated that the spirit of reconciliation between North and South Korea will continue as economic support and is enjoying the current situation. When considering this, North Korea probably participated in the talks upon deciding to provide one-time military security.”
Sejong Institute’s Chief Researcher Song Dae Sung commented, “North Korea strongly wants economic support stemming from the South’s engagement policy, so it will try to receive benefits by listening to South Korea’s request for military security.”
Researcher Song pointed out, “The North, if it operates trains, was embarrassed about North’s regions lagging behind outer society, but in this case, it seems to have prioritized material gains.”
Simultaneously, the North seemed to have cooperated with military security in consideration of the South’s and international public opinion. When the North reversed its agreement with the experimental rail operations just days ahead, domestic public sentiment strongly criticizing the government’s approach towards North Korea arose. Even the government could not raise its head. The North seems to have taken into consideration our government’s pitiful situation at least once.
◆ North, using North-South joint agreement as a military security card = North Korea refused our request for a permanent establishment of a military security joint agreement and adhered to an one-time military security. The military security following this North-South agreement loses effectiveness when the experimental operations end on the coming 17th.
The overriding explanation is that the North, after the one-time negotiations, plans to thoroughly use “the military security issue” at the North-South Official Negotiations. It wants to break and use the cooperation card where several hundred million dollars and light industry and rice loans will be secured.
At the negotiation for West Sea Collision Prevention, the joint water issue, and the South’s economic support, it can be observed that the North will use military security as an important card. After succeeding the experimental operations, there is high possibility that the South will request additional operations, so it can be calculated that the North will request even greater support at that time.
Dr. Baek stated, “North Korea has minutely separated experimental rail operations and military security and will use he military point as a “negotiation card. It is highly possible that North Korea, after the experimental rail operations, will request other renumerations by raising other securities regarding commercial or civilian rail operations.”
Chief Researcher Song observed, “Even though experimental rail operations or reestablishment of the NLL is a separate case, North Korea is unfolding an artistry of continuing the NLL problem while seeming to compromise one-time military security and others one step. Subsequently, North Korea will continuously discuss the NLL reestablishment issue. The NLL problem can be a crucial variable at the North-South talks.”
◆ The reestablishment of NLL realistically difficult = However, the rough analysis is that fulfillment of North Korea’s request for the NLL restablishment will be realistically difficult.
Regarding such requests of the North, our side has chosen the position that we should raise the military security issue, along with other military faith-building issues included in the North-South basic negotiations, as an issue to be discussed and handled at the North-South National Defense Cabinet Talks.
Dr. Baek said, “The NLL issue ought to be discussed at high-level political talks than at military talks. Agreement can be made to achieve partial revisions regarding the NLL, but actual restablishment will be impossible at such a close date.”
One side analyzed that in North Korea’s request to reestablish the West Sea NLL which has been hardened for 50 years, there is a hidden intention to induce every kind of disputes by shaking the power supply setup on the peninsula.”
