South Korea’s National Assembly has voted to impeach President Park Geun Hye, with Prime Minister Hwang Kyo Ahn serving as acting president during the interim period. While the government of South Korea has sought to maintain its policy of ‘denuclearization through sanctions and pressure, and promotion of change within North Korea’ during a time of international sanctions against the North, questions remain as to the future direction of its North Korea policy.
The South Korean government has recently confirmed its intention to implement sanctions against the North regardless of the political situation. Acting President Hwang Kyo Ahn has instructed Foreign Minister Yun Byung Se on the phone to strengthen international cooperation for sanctions against North Korea, including the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2321.
In parallel, the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, National Defense and Unification have also stated their intent to maintain the current overall policy direction on major issues. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will continue to push for adherence to sanctions following the impeachment and has individually invited foreign ambassadors of major neighboring countries to clarify South Korea’s position.
The Ministry of Unification held a conference on December 10 hosted by Minister Hong Yong Pyo to discuss North Korea’s activities and South Korea’s preparedness. Lee Sun Jin, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS), visited the GOP (General Outpost) unit along the middle-eastern frontline on December 10 to warn the unit on possible provocations by North Korea, issuing orders for thorough preparedness.
Analysts point out that a revision of North Korea policy in the current climate of political instability has the potential to generate a national crisis. In particular, it is being noted that if the government attempts dialogue with the North, against the spirit of international solidarity and sanctions, it would strengthen the bargaining position of Kim Jong Un’s dictatorship and jeopardize international cooperation on the nuclear issue.
Cho Han Bum, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, told Daily NK on December 12, “I don’t believe that the Park Geun Hye government’s North Korea policy succeeded. But in the current political turbulence, it is not desirable to change the direction of national policy.”
“Without a central body for policy decisions, the overall direction is difficult to determine. We would find difficulty achieving legitimacy and momentum [for policy change]. So the current policy direction must be maintained for at least a while,” Cho added.
Chung Young Tae, Director of the Military Research Institute of Dongyang University, added, “Kim Jong Un has elicited international sanctions on the North through his refusal to give up the pursuit of nuclear weapons. The international community is now resolute on its decision to strengthen sanctions on North Korea. We should not cause any faltering in the momentum that has been built.”
“Kim Jong Un has been fomenting military tension to display his allegedly superior strategy and tactics as a military leader, and the North Korean authorities have been portraying him as a hero. If we attempt dialogue with the North, breaking the principle of firm pressure, it would only encourage the regime’s beligerence,” Director Chung added.
However, some argue that relying only on sanctions may not be the best approach, pointing out that alternative measures that do not deviate widely from the current policy direction may induce long term change in North Korea.
“I believe that some changes are acceptable with the current policy basis being maintained. For example, we can provide humanitarian assistance to North Korea, including support for flood-hit North Hamgyong Province,” Mr. Cho said.
“North Korea is not likely to attempt major provocations until the outline of the Trump administration’s North Korea policy is understood. As the negotiation phase between the US and the DPRK is expected to continue for the time being, there is room for seeking improvement in inter-Korean relations. We should carefully consider these circumstances.”
