Kim Jong Un has remained conspicuously absent from the moving-in ceremonies that have been held in the flood damaged regions of North Korea recently.
For the North Korean leader, a visit to North Hamgyong Province as residents move in to their newly-constructed homes represents a good photo opportunity. Such actions would be in line with North Korean propaganda efforts, claiming that the flood recovery has been the ‘top achievement for 2016 and a global historic miracle.’
A visit would also cap off Kim Jong Un’s achievements for the year, following the 7th Party Congress in May (the first held in 36 years) which demonstrated his consolidation of power.
It would also mitigate to some extent the dissatisfaction of the locals in regards to the regime’s ineptitude, following the combined impact of sanctions imposed by the international community and the devastating floods which the North Korean government referred to as “the greatest catastrophe since liberation.”
Analysts have suggested that Kim Jong Un’s reluctance to visit the recovery site in spite of these perceived benefits might be due to security issues. Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un’s younger sister and vice-director of the Propaganda and Agitation Department, is in charge of Kim Jong Un’s personal security detail, which has likely advised him to refrain from visiting the area.
Cho Bong Hyun, deputy director of the BK Economic Research Institute, told Daily NK on November 24 that, “As Kim Jong Un’s security is becoming threatened, the Escort Command has assumed both responsibility for his safety as well as the operation of all ceremonies, with Kim Yo Jong behind the scenes.”
“It can be assumed that Kim Yo Jong is planning all of Kim Jong Un’s travel plans, even choosing who will escort him. She may have decided that it is not yet safe for him to visit the recovery site,” Mr Cho added.
Seo Jae Pyeong, secretary-general of the Association of the North Korean Defectors added that, “In the past, Kim Jong Il was responsible for deciding all the travel plans for Kim Il Sung. In view of this, it is likely that Kim Yo Jong is taking a similar role. The flood-stricken North Hamgyong Province is a border region, and the loss of firearms along the Tumen River Border Guard must have raised significant safety concerns.
It has also been pointed out that Kim Jong Un may be avoiding the recovery site partly because not all the housing construction has been fully completed, unlike reports published by the Rodong Sinmun.
A source in North Hamgyong Province reported on November 23, “There are many houses which are complete on the outside but unfinished on the inside. People are temporarily sharing the completed houses, which is proving uncomfortable for all involved.”
“If a ‘Number 1 event (any event with Kim Jong Un in attendance)’ were to take place in such a situation, it may invite further criticism from the residents,” the source added.
However, enough time remains for Kim Jong Un to visit the site by the end of the year. Some have argued that Kim Yo Jong is aiming to maximize the impact of Kim Jong Un’s visit, which may go well with Kim Jong Un’s New Year’s Address to be broadcast on January 1, 2017.
Jung Yong Tae, director of the Military Research Institute at Dongyang University, said, “In North Korea’s perspective, the flood recovery was not a simple restoration project. The regime focused on the concept of a socialist utopia, meaning ‘the construction of a happy city.’ Therefore, Kim Jong Un is likely to visit the site sooner or later so as to promote the idea.”
“In a normal country, it would be natural for the national leader to visit a flood-stricken region. But in a dictatorial system like North Korea, the leader visits the site after the recovery is finished to claim it as their own achievement. There is a possibility that Kim Jong Un will visit the site to congratulate those who were involved in the housing construction,” Jung added.
Jang Hae Sung, a former Escort Command agent who became a writer after defecting to South Korea, added, “Event Department 1 of the Escort Command is in charge of events related to Kim Jong Un, and it is likely that Kim Yo Jong is contemplating the optimal time for Kim Jong Un to visit the recovery site.”
