As South Korea reels from the Choi Soon Sil gate political controversy, attention is turning toward North Korea and whether the regime may use the opportunity to cause further instability, as has been the case in similar circumstances in the past.
Daily NK recently reported that the North Korean authorities have been holding propaganda lectures stating that South Korea will soon collapse and that the era of unification is imminent.
The regime is heavily emphasizing that the current state of turmoil in South Korea represents a new opportunity to achieve reunification, after having lost the “previous two opportunities” including South Korea’s April 19 Revolution in 1960, and the June 10 Democratic Uprising of 1987.
North Korea has been doggedly pursuing a strategy of reunification under communism with varying levels of intensity since the days of Kim Il Sung. The strategy seeks to divide national opinion by inducing or exacerbating internal conflict in South Korea, with the eventual goal of paralyzing the government. North Korea may therefore attempt to capitalize on the current opportunity by engaging in psychological warfare (including the distribution of flyers) and cyber attacks, in a bid to amplify instability in South Korean society. That such efforts would be successful, however, is highly unlikely.
Political observers have noted that North Korea is likely contemplating measures to induce a change of government in South Korea, using the momentum generated by citizens demanding the resignation of President Park Geun Hye.
A phishing e-mail presumed to have been sent by a North Korean hacking unit was also recently brought to the attention of Daily NK. The email contained text calling for the resignation of President Park (entitled ‘The Uneasy Republic of Korea”). Such content suggests that the regime is already undertaking tailored measures to destabilize its southerly neighbor.
Director Yoo Dong Ryul of the Korea Institute of Liberal Democracy recently commented to Daily NK, “North Korea will try to exacerbate the Choi Soon Sil scandal as much as possible to promote anarchy within South Korean society. Their strategy is to use the current situation as a stepping stone to launch a mass revolution within South Korea. But it will first attempt to strengthen its efforts in psychological warfare and consolidate its pro-North Korean elements within South Korea to induce movement towards a pro-Pyongyang government, because a full military invasion of the South is not possible at present.”
 A photo of a North Korean flyer containing anti-American content found in Sungbuk-gu Seoul. Image: Daily NK |
For the past few days, North Korea has been dispersing flyers within South Korea on a nationwide scale, although the content of the flyers is focused on anti-American content rather than the current domestic political scandal.
Commenting on a number of flyers acquired by Daily NK on November 16, a defector who was previously a high-ranking official in North Korea said, “These flyers are similar to others in the past which turned out to be from North Korea, in terms of the size, font, and the content. But there are also some unfamiliar words that are not frequently used in North Korea such as, ‘if’ and ‘the world.’ So it seems highly likely that these flyers were systematically distributed by pro-North Korean organizations within South Korea.”
Some argue that there is a possibility of North Korea conducting additional provocations including a nuclear test or missile launches. However, it is also possible that North Korea will choose to refrain from such provocative actions so as not to stimulate anti-North sentiment in South Korea. The South Korean government and the military authorities have strengthened their surveillance, but no specific activity has been detected at North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site, according to the analysis of satellite images.
“North Korea will likely focus its efforts online, using a specialized propaganda unit that prolifically spreads online commentary to encourage anti-government sentiment in South Korea. It can be assumed that new guidelines have been sent out to elements within South Korea, based on the recent broadcasting of strings of numbers [suspected to be coded messages sent to spies or sleeper agents, or alternatively as a psychological warfare tactic],” Park Hwee Rhak, dean of the Graduate School of Politics and Leadership at Kookmin University asserted.
Kim Kwang In, director of the Korea Advancement Coalition added, “History has shown that North Korea has been consistently promoting the division of national opinion and political crisis in South Korea. It is highly likely that it is actively honing its strategy to exploit the Choi Soon Sil scandal.”
