Yesterday Kim Jong Un conducted North
Korea’s 4th nuclear test despite anticipated increased sanctions from both
China and the international community. Observers say that this test shows that
possession of strong nuclear weapons is a means to fortify the continued existence
of the regime. As Kim Jong Un lacks any worthwhile achievements either at home
or abroad, some analysts also say that this test was part of an effort to boost
the appearance of his success ahead of the 7th annual Party Congress.
In order to achieve the preeminent goal
emphasized in the 2016 New Year’s address– improving the economy– it seems
that the regime judged it to be more urgent to complete the nuclear strategy
espoused by Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il and have its status as a nuclear state
recognized rather than induce the support of the international community
through conciliatory gestures.
Analysts also say that the losses incurred
through the test of a purported hydrogen bomb by showing the limits of Kim Jong
Un’s international leadership outweigh the economic benefits. It is a misstep
by the regime to continue its dependence on military power and shout its
existence to the world by conducting this nuclear test. This type of ‘threat’
approach only deepens its isolation from the international community, in
contrast to a ‘soft’ approach to improving the lives of the people
through economic stimulation.
Moreover, experts assert that the decisive
action of carrying out a nuclear test just five days after the New Year’s
address, during which mention of nuclear strength was conspicuously absent, is
a tactical move on Kim Jong Un’s part: a key component of his “stick and
carrot” approach. This nuclear test is a reaffirmation of the strategy based on
the idea that ‘only the possession of nuclear weapons will ensure the sustained
existence of our state’.
Kim Jin Moo, head of the Korean Institute
for Defense Analyses, explained to Daily NK that “If we look at Kim Jong Un’s
deteriorating relationship with China and the international system, it appears
that this nuclear test is an acknowledgement of how desperately the regime
needs nuclear weapons. Whenever these nuclear tests are conducted, they are
done so according to the will of the regime without consideration for the
current situation.”
Mr. Kim also added that it is difficult to
explain North Korea’s nuclear problem in light of the current international
political situation. “It could be that Kim Jong Un has looked at cases like Libya
and Iran and concluded that possessing nuclear weapons is the key to staying in absolute power,” he remarked.
Song Dae Seong, formerly the head of the
Sejong Research Center, also commented on the situation. “It seems as though
Kim Jong Un believes that as long as he has nuclear weapons, his regime will
never collapse. Like a gangster obsessed with deadly weapons, regardless of the
state of dialogue, possession of nuclear weapons ensures that he has a
bargaining chip to use in negotiating with the outside. This latest challenge
shows his unwillingness to give up the parallel tracks of nukes and the
economy,” he explained.
Mr. Song also stated that with this sudden
nuclear test, North Korea’s New Year’s Address was nothing more than coercive
rhetoric– political propaganda put forth by the North Korean leader. Others assert that Kim Jong Un’s attempts to strengthen his nuclear weapons arsenal will depend on
the reaction of the international community and whether or not it can
demonstrate real intentions and strategy instead of the tired reactions of statements of condemnation followed up with largely ineffective
sanctions.
One North Korea watcher who would not be
named stated that the regime sees nuclear testing as an absolutely
beneficial tactic that bolsters the state. “They don’t see sanctions or timing
as important. The significance of procuring a substantially greater amount of
nuclear weapons itself is not the issue. Whether or not Kim Jong Un conducts
another nuclear test or missile launch will depend on the reaction of the
international community to testing of the alleged hydrogen bomb,” she asserted.
