One of the most notable aspects of Kim Jong
Un’s New Year’s address is that instead of putting nuclear threats and
aggression at the top of the agenda, he emphasized building an “economically
strong state.” In his 2015 speech, the leader had put much focus on the Party,
military, and an ideologically strong nation, but that was replaced this year
with talk on achieving economic development and improving people’s livelihoods.
This change appears to come from the belief
that he has now solidified his power base through what has been dubbed a “reign of terror” and
restructured the leadership to one centered on the Party, which is why he is
now moving toward promoting people-friendly policies in order to win over
greater loyalty. Based on this, speculation is that from the fifth year of his
rule, economic policies and systems devised by Kim are on course to come to
fruition.
◆ Economic achievements to be presented as Kim’s accomplishments
In this year’s speech, the fields of
energy, coal, metalworking, and railway transportation were cited as the key
elements in building a strong nation. This is a shift away from last year’s
emphasis on “agriculture, livestock, and fisheries to improve people’s
livelihoods” and instead, the heavy industry was put in the spotlight as a
means to bring about fundamental recovery in North Korea’s economy. Having
talked about the upcoming 7th Party Congress in May ahead of the country’s
economy in his speech, it is likely efforts will be put on making substantial
economic achievements ahead of the Congress so they can be cited as Kim’s
accomplishments.
Improving people’s livelihoods was also underscored, following the emphasis on
revitalizing the heavy industry. Just like last year, innovation in the
agriculture, livestock, and fisheries industries was put forward as major tasks
and also mentioned was modernizing the light industry as well as invigorating
reforestation efforts and advancing science and technology. Kim Jong Un also
noted, “Our Party, out of all 10 million state affairs, considers the issue of
people’s livelihoods the most important,” expressing his determination to
improve standards for the public. The leader is also likely to try to promote
his image as being more people friendly especially as many last year were able
to see improvements in their day-to-day lives due to relaxed regulations on
market activities and the ensuing expansion in operations.
Professor Lim Eul Chul from The Institute
of Far Eastern Studies [IFES] told Daily NK on January 1, “Kim Jong Un has so
far solidified the foundation of his leadership in the Party and military and
now as he enters his fifth year, it seems that he has come to the conclusion he
can only complete the overhaul in the system by focusing on revitalizing the
economy.” Lim added compared to any other year, there were detailed orders
pertaining to the economy in the speech, and aside from military issues and
foreign policy, all other fields had deep ties back to economic issues, giving
reason to speculate the North will put great effort into the economy this year.
“Unlike before, instead of mentioning the
dual policy of nuclear development and economic development, the focus on
achievements in the economic sector appears to signal his strategy to
accomplish more stable and peaceful growth,” Lim said. “Depending on the
political conditions, there is the possibility that the North will try to use
its nuclear card again, but for now it looks like it wants to make public to
both those in and outside of the country that it will place its greatest emphasis
on economic development.”
Kim Suk Jin, research fellow at Korea Institute for National Unification
[KINU], surmised the change is in relation to the slower improvement in
economic conditions last year, despite gradual growth seen over the past few
years. “I expect the North will take on the economy as one of its central goals
this year since it will be looking for a breakthrough to improve sluggish
economic performance,” he explained.
Senior Researcher Cho Bong Hyun at IBK Economic Institute, however, speculated
given the short period of time left until May’s Party Congress that Kim Jong Un
likely had in mind delivering changes following the landmark gathering. “Using
the Party Congress as the starting point to make actual changes to the economy
will be easier for Kim when it comes to adding significance to his
achievements,” Cho said.
◆ Institutionalizing changes on the
economic front, still too early to expect opening up for reforms
Despite the greater emphasis on economic
development, analysts agree there are no clear signs of change in direction in
related policies. Although much time was set aside for economic issues, the
speech lacked details on how change would be implemented. This is why the
assertion that a fuller picture of Kim Jong Un’s blueprint for his economic
policy is likely to emerge as the country nears the 7th Party Congress carries
greater weight.
It is worth noting that in last year’s speech Kim unveiled
plans for the comprehensive development of the Rason special zone, while this
year, reference of the ‘imports disease’ [people’s overdependence on imported
goods] was dropped. However, experts say it is still too early to forecast
based only on the address whether the North will move forward with reforms and
open up the country in the new year.
“We have seen from this New Year’s Address
that the North is willing to devote everything it has to the economy, but we
need to wait and see in which direction it intends to take its economic
policies,” Lim said. “All of the policies that were mentioned in the speech are
no different from what we’ve seen in the past, but I do believe instead of falling
short of implementation it will actually work to produce visible results.”
Lim added that although what the outside world wants from Kim is signs that he
will open up the country and step away from a socialist system, such signals
are hard to find in the address. “Whatever policies he proposes will have their
roots in the socialist framework and since this will be in the realm of the
‘official economy’, it will be worth noting how things play out in the
‘unofficial economy’ such as with the markets,” he said.
Cho also weighed in saying specific
reference to opening up the economy could come across as “abandoning the
socialist economic system.” He added, “There is, however, the possibility that
the market movements seen nationwide may become more institutionalized, and the
direction of reforms could be molded into a policy of the North’s ‘own economic
management system.”
