The abrupt pull-out from a performance in
China by Moranbong Band, North Korea’s answer to South Korea’s head-turning
girl groups, is likely to strain ties between Pyongyang and Beijing, but the degree of which remains heavily disputed.
The band was originally scheduled to
perform in Beijing on December 12, but with only about three hours left to the
show the girl group pulled the plug and boarded a flight home. Members of the
Korean People’s Army State Merited Chorus, also due to perform alongside the
band, reportedly embarked on their journey back home on a night train the same
day.
Although conclusive details on why
Pyongyang canceled the Moranbong Band performance have yet to surface, the
incident is considered a diplomatic blunder, and many point out it will
inevitably deal a blow to relations with China. Some even speculate it will
have an impact on economic cooperation between Pyongyang and Beijing.
“The sudden cancellation of the Moranbong
Band performance is a show bad diplomatic manners, and it will worsen ties
between China and the North,” Cho Bong Hyun, a senior researcher at IBK
Economic Institute, said. “It may not have a large effect on small economic
projects that are being carried out with Chinese local governments, but
especially when it comes to operations that involve the central government, it
might become an obstacle,” he forecast.
“It may put a halt on talks about creating
a special economic zone between the two countries or carrying out large-scale
infrastructure projects within the North,” Cho said. “Chinese people will also
have a worse image of North Korea, which means it could put a dent in tourism
to the North.” Some say this incident may even exacerbate existing negative
images of North Korea that portray it as being a non-communicable,
unpredictable state that does not listen to China’s advice.
However, analysts believe that even so the
frost will not last for long on bilateral ties, as Pyongyang had already
expressed its desire to improve relations with Beijing ahead of a historic
Party Congress scheduled for May next year.
“For now, the two sides may maintain icy
relations,” Ahn Chan Il, director of The World Institute for North Korea Studies told Daily
NK. “But considering the North has the Party Congress coming up next year, it
will put priority on restoring ties with China, so we will see things improve
again.”
Professor Lim Eul Chul from The Institute
for Far Eastern Studies [IFES] also weighed in on the topic saying, “Next year,
the North will have a lot of demand for economic cooperation projects with
China.” Lim added this is why it may for now express its displeasure, but it
will soon start working again on improving relations.
“The Chinese government has also been
proactive on developing the North’s Rason area and working on a railway, so it
can improve its regional economies,” Lim said. “Beijing has no interest in
seeing strained ties affecting development plans either.”
Meanwhile, China’s state-run news agency
Xinhua reported that the unexpected cancellation was due to “communication
issues” but did not further elaborate, and the North has so far kept mum on the
issue as well.
