Inter-Korean talks are ongoing in an
attempt to ease the escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula yet 50 North Korean submarines have disappeared from the radar of
inspection and North Korea has doubled its artillery strength at the border. To gain more insight into what this could portend, Unification Media Group sat down with Daily NK’s
defector-reporter Choi Song Min, who offered informed analysis on North Korea’s
military movements.
1. It is said that fifty North Korean
submarines have disappeared from the radar of our inspection. That means that
the North Korean submarines are launching ocean floor-level operations. What do
you think is North Korea’s intention behind this?
CHOI: I think it means that North Korea is
taking all possible steps to up the degree of its threats to South Korea. It
has readied heavy artillery in areas bordering South Korea and deployed a fleet
of submarines. This is all part of North Korea’s exert to flex its muscles and
demonstrate its determination to react with military power if the South fails
to heed its demands.
As you know, submarines enable forces to surreptitiously
maneuver and attack at extreme underwater depths; needless to say, it’s hard to
detect their locations when submerged. In our waters, we can more readily
detect these vessels, but this becomes much harder when the fleet is lurking in North Korean territory.
2. Many point out the possibility that North
Korea will unleash a veritable attack on South Korea. Submarine attacks are
hard to trace, they say, increasing the possibility for North Korea to employ
them in an offensive. Can you share your thoughts on such speculation?
CHOI: North Korea will never be able to
attack. If it really had to will to do so, it would have followed through with
its threats to attack the target.
It would be difficult on many levels for
North Korean submarines and submergence vehicles to infiltrate South Korean
waters. Considering the fact that the South accused the North of planting
landmines that triggered this entire incident to begin with, it would be pretty
tough for North Korean submarines and submergence vehicles to infiltrate South
Korean waters at this point. Doing so would brand North Korean a definitive
provoker with little to no room to manipulate that image. North Korea would
bear sole responsibility for escalating the tensions to that degree and lock
itself into an inescapable position and onslaught of criticism from the
international community.
Moreover, North Korea’s submarines may be
many but they are overwhelmingly inferior to South Korea’s fleet. In fact, they
could even capsize on their own, much like they did when the North attempt
infiltrating the waters off of Gangneung, South Korea in 1997. North Korea will
then be solely responsible for causing tension and will not be able to escape
criticism from the international community.
3. North Korea is known to lack fuel. How
could it wage an operation with these subs despite these conditions?
CHOI: Long-term aggravations are guaranteed
to create greater damage for North Korea than the South. Fuel is just one of
many crucial supplies seriously lacking in the North. Including oil, the
resources necessary to operate this fleet for war purposes is not an option for
North Korea. It’s extremely likely that North Korea is desperate to resolve
this crisis–even more than the political concerns but the economic losses.
Economic burdens always transfer to the citizens and make an already hard life,
harder.
4. North Korean submarines are quite
decrepit. How long do you think they can remain underwater?
CHOI: Right. As I touched on before, the
submarines available in North Korea are extremely inferior. In 1996, a 1500-ton
Russia-manufactured submarine sank near Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province taking
65 crew members down with it. North Korea has still not salvaged the submarine.
While South Korea categorizes submarines
into “shark” or “salmon” classes, North Korea divides them into domestic,
Chinese, and Russian groups. In other cases they simply break them down by
size: small, mid, and large.
Typically, homegrown vessels are produced
in Sinpo City, South Hamgyong Province and are imitations of 1500-ton and
1000-ton massive Russian models produced during the Cold War. Other smaller
vessels are churned out in munitions factories in Cheongjin, Rason, and Nampo.
These submarines run on diesel and/or
battery power. They only last around 2-3 days on battery power [batteries can
only be charged on the surface] but can remain submerged for approximately two
months using diesel turbines.
5. After declaring a quasi-state of war
with South Korea, North Korea has moved doubled its artillery at the frontline. How likely do you think it is
that it will actually carry out an attack?
CHOI: Of course it’s hard to say there’s no
possibility that it will infiltrate with its special forces. It has mobilized
all kinds of weaponry and soldiers, so it might use all methods available to
carry out a provocation. The North Korean military places the most emphasis on
guerrilla warfare, so it could mobilize combat troops from the General
Reconnaissance Bureau and reconnaissance squadron from the navy to attack
industrial sites and military bases.
However, it would be hard for the North to
carry something out while high-level talks are ongoing between the two Koreas.
If the talks fall apart, I think it will immediately take action in order to stir up more fear among South Koreans and trigger internal
conflict.
6. One of the issues of greatest concern
would be the deployment of special forces. How likely do you think it is that
they will launch a surprise attack, and how should the South hedge against it?
CHOI: It would be hard for them to
infiltrate the border area with South Korea, where tensions are running high,
but it is possible that they may on the waters or through the Imjin River. In
other words, they would only be able to infiltrate through waters, and this is
why we need to focus on protecting our seas, the coastlines, and around Imjin
River. Especially at sea, they need to watch out for fishing vessels that are
under camouflage, semi-submarines, and submarine attacks.
7. South Korea and the U.S. have raised
their alert level to WATCHCON 2 from level 3. This is under the judgment that
risk of a provocation is severe and under these conditions surveillance
satellites and reconnaissance aircrafts are fully mobilized. So the South is
closely monitoring movements from the North. Would it still be possible for
Pyongyang to carry out a provocation under such circumstances?
CHOI: We would not see attacks on the
border area, where surveillance is at its highest and where the world has its
eyes on. But as I mentioned earlier, they could carry out an attack at sea or
through rivers. At a time when all eyes are on the demilitarized zone [DMZ] it
could carry out a guerrilla attack elsewhere. It would be under the strategy of
‘creating noise from the east and hitting enemies from the West.’
8. If Pyongyang really wanted to carry out
an attack, it should be mobilizing its submarines and artillery without Seoul
noticing. So some are saying that these movements are not actually with the
intention to hit the South but to threaten it. What do you make of that?
CHOI: Vicious dogs that actually bite
people don’t bark or scare people. They just instantaneously attack them. The
Korean War also took place at 5 a.m. when no one was expecting it. If Pyongyang
were truly willing to go to war it would not openly gather its forces over the
stretch of several days for everyone to see. This is all part of its propaganda
to show off its military might and prove something to its people. If it was
thinking of going to war, it would first need to put the three elements of war
into place.
First, the soldiers going to war would need
to be mentally prepared. As things are at the moment, North Korea’s troops and
people are not mentally armed. There’s also the sentiment that they don’t care
which side wins and just want war to break out to bring some relief to their
lives (down the line). The second element is having the assets for war. Under
the current conditions, in which the overall economy is struggling and it has
outdated military equipment, war is not an option. It also lacks in supplies
for food, diesel, and gasoline. Lastly, it needs the right atmosphere in the
international community. It would need global support, but at the moment, China
is busy getting ready for Victory Day and a massive celebration, so it would be
hard (for the North) to go to war.
9. Some say Kim Jong Un’s decision to move
troops around like it’s actually interested in going to war shows how insecure
he feels. What do you think of that assessment?
CHOI: That’s right. Even though he has
declared a quasi-state of war, the opponent is not even budging and seemingly
changing the North’s stance to one of dialogue has not helped move things in
the direction that he wants, so he would be feeling very frustrated.
As a result, he has stepped things up with
his submarines but that hasn’t led to immediate results from the talks. It only
triggered a stronger response from the South and the U.S. If he folds here, he
would become a loser. So it looks like he’s not sure what to do with this
situation. I think during times like this we should push further forward and
stand our ground, and I think people in the South should also have resilience
and the determination to cut off this vicious cycle of provocation from the
North.
