Attention is on North Korea to see whether
China will send a high-level official in time for late leader Kim Jong Il’s birthday [February 16th] celebrations scheduled for today and tomorrow.
Following a visit from Beijing’s Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin last year to this event,
high-level diplomatic exchanges between the two countries have ground to a
halt.
The unraveling of the once tightly-knit
relationship, commonly referred to as a blood alliance, began in 2013, when
North Korea conducted its third nuclear test in February. Also, the purge of
Pyongyang’s Jang Song Thaek, who was known for his
close ties with China, further drove a wedge between the two countries.
South Korea’s
Ambassador to China Kwon Young Se recently said in an interview with South
Korean media, “It’s not only
Chinese scholars, but party members that say relations between the North and
China are no longer the same, and that they have become more alienated.”
With this change in ties, Pyongyang has
recently been reaching out to Moscow in lieu of Beijing and speeding up
economic cooperation, as evidenced by the joint development project to connect
North Korea’s port Rajin with Russia’s Khasan currently underway.
Also, Moscow has extended an invitation to
leader Kim Jong Eun for the 70th V-Day event in May to celebrate the country’s victory in World War Two. The leader is said to have given a “positive response” to this, adding weight to
speculation that relations are maturing between the two countries.
In light of these developments, some
analysts believe China will make efforts to counterbalance the ties between
Pyongyang and Moscow by working to improve ties with the North again. The
perfect occasion would be to send a high-level official to Kim Jong Il’s birthday celebration. Rumors that Party secretary Choe Ryong Hae,
widely seen as among the most high-ranking officials in the country, will visit
China fall in line with this current view.
China’s foreign
ministry spokesperson, Hong Lei, in a press release on January 8th, Kim Jong
Eun’s birthday, said, “We hope
to improve the traditional, friendly, cooperative relations with North Korea,
based on the principle of succeeding traditions, aiming for the future, holding
good relations with neighbors, and enhancing cooperation.”
These principles [of 16 characters in
Chinese], previously the foundation for North Korea-China relations,
disappeared last year only to reemerge this year, leading experts to believe
Beijing is signaling that it is willing to improve relations.
However, others caution against such
liberal interpretations. They also assert China would not send an envoy to the
North on Kim Jong Il’s birthday without Pyongyang
making any progress in denuclearization.
“The 16-character principle, which
resurfaced this year, leads me to believe there will be some kind of change
this year,” Lee Tai Hwan, Head of the Regional Studies
Department at The Sejong Institute said in an interview with Daily NK. “But this doesn’t mean that China will
completely reset its relations with the North different from last year.”
“The move [referencing the 16-character
principle] may simply be a gesture to feel out the North,” he added. “There has even been mention of a
Pyongyang-Beijing summit, but that’s an overstatement;
they aren’t likely even send a high-level official to
Kim Jong Il’s birthday events,”
he added.
