North Korea launched five short-range
missiles into the East Sea on Sunday afternoon, and previously on Friday, it revealed
the test-firing of anti-ship cruise missiles aboard what appeared to be a 200 to
300 ton guided missile destroyer with leader Kim Jong Eun present for the event.
Pyongyang’s latest
move is seen as a flex of muscle against Seoul and Washington, as they ramp up
pressure against the North. Some believe the North is trying to pressure the
South and the U.S. ahead of their annual joint military exercises schedule for next month, known as Key
Resolve and Foal Eagle, as relations with the two
sides remain gridlocked.
As such, inter-Korean relations are to remain frosty for the time being. Last year, Pyongyang carried out several
provocations ahead of the joint military drills, including the use of a new
multiple rocket launcher and test firing short-range missiles.
Hopes ran high for a breakthrough in
inter-Korean relations after Kim Jong Eun’s mention of
the possibility for “talks at the highest level” in his New Year’s Address. However, no
concrete developments have taken place following Pyongyang’s stipulation that Seoul halt its military drills and lift the May 24th
sanctions as prerequisites for the talks.
The North has kept mum on its response to a
proposal for high-level dialogue between the two Koreas in January, put forward by Seoul’s Unification Preparatory Committee at the end last year, as well as
President Park Geun Hye’s offer to hold family reunions
for war-torn families around the Lunar New Year holiday. Instead, it has
demanded the South cancel its joint military drills and block civic groups from
sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets across the border.
Despite such demands, South Korea’s Minister of Unification Ryoo Kihl Jae recently said in a lecture
on Friday, “Inter-Korean talks could become an
opportunity to lift the May 24th sanctions,” but
Pyongyang, brushing aside this move, continues to underscore its position on the
matter.
Some experts predict the North may step up
its level of provocation from “low” to “high.” If this is the case, and if Pyongyang were to launch a medium or long-range missile circa the Seoul-Washington military drills, prospects for improving inter-Korean ties
will run dry.
Analysts also maintain if the Park Geun Hye
administration, eager to produce results on the North Korea front in its third
year, rushes into making decisions, it could in effect hand the lead in
inter-Korean relations to Pyongyang.
“The anti-ship cruise missile and
short-range missile launch this time around is simply the prelude for provocations
toward the South and the international community to come,” one North Korea expert told Daily NK. “If
military provocations are carried out around the Key Resolve drills just like
last year, it will make the outlook for inter-Korean relations opaque.”
He added that while Seoul is expected to continue to express willingness to engage in dialogue with the North, Pyongyang will
continue to up pressure on the South, attempting to draw out policy changes. “In this climate where we don’t know when inter-Korean talks will take place, this kind of
offensive from the North will press on, with Pyongyang vying to grab the reins of dialogue between the two Koreas,” he concluded.
