In Kim Jong Eun’s televised New Year’s Address delivered on
the 1st of January, the leader dedicated much of the speech to improving
inter-Korean relations and the issue of unification, creating speculation that
he may be aiming to actively set the stage to improve cross-border ties. The
leader also emphasized “improving the livelihood of people” with specific
detailed orders, though the portion of the address dedicated to this field was
considerably less than the previous year.
During the address, Kim noted that this year marks the 70th
year since the division of Korea, and as such, stressed it will be “one of
great openings for a path towards autonomous unification.” In terms of
inter-Korean ties, he stated that “the history of the North and South must be rewritten”
and “there is no reason to not hold talks of the highest level.”
“Dialogue, negotiations, exchanges, and frequent contact
should be made to reconnect the nation’s bond and bloodline, and we must bring
about a grand transition and transformation,” the leader said in his speech.
“If South Korea sincerely wants to improve North-South relations through
dialogue, we can reopen high-level talks and hold partial meetings,” he added,
indicating a decidedly proactive attitude toward the matter.
Compared to last year’s address, wherein he asserted that a
“climate for improved relations between North and South” must be created, his
remarks signal a change in stance, raising cautious optimism that he will take
a more enthusiastic approach this year on fostering a better bilateral
relationship with Seoul.
However, some point out Pyongyang may simply be looking for
an exit from mounting international pressure–surrounding concerns about the
North’s human rights problems–by bringing up the prospect of holding “inter-Korean
summit talks” that ostensibly represents a softer approach toward Seoul.
Predictably, however, the conditional reference of “after
the atmosphere and conditions are right” indicates that Pyongyang’s policy
towards the South remains largely unchanged, with the leader most plausibly
seeking a “second June 15th [South-North Joint Declaration adopted on June
15th, 2000]” moment.
Still, Chief Analyst Cho Bong Hyeon of the IBK Economic
Research Institute asserted that these tentative sanguine outlooks are not to
be dismissed, during an interview with Daily NK today. “Since the North has
emphasized it will resolve the issue of food supplies for its people in order
to build a powerful nation–declaring it will put out results–it is
demonstrating its willingness to resolve those problems through a dramatic
change in inter-Korean relations,” he said.
“To break through its current state of isolation from the
international community, it is indicating it will use the improvement of
inter-Korean ties as its solution,” Cho explained. “With all the preconditions
it has laid down, it’s hard to tell whether it will follow up with actions of
sincerity, so the [South Korean] government should take precautions in
understanding what Pyongyang’s intentions are,” the analyst warned.
Lee Su Seok, chief analyst at the Institute for National
Security Strategy, also weighed in on what today’s address could portend,
stating, “In last year’s New Year’s Address he also mentioned improving
South-North relations, but the [year that followed was filled with] continual
criticism [from the North] about anti-Pyongyang leaflet campaigns and the human
rights resolution.” He added, “So the step forward we see in his stance this
year compared to last likely comes with the goal of finding a breakthrough for
the country’s state of isolation from the global community.”
However, the fact that the North said, “Talks of trust
cannot take place in an atmosphere where war games are taking place,” making
specific reference to South Korea-U.S. joint war drills– a perennial source of
contention –makes it likely Pyongyang will raise issues with the annual
military exercises and blame Seoul for prickly relations– just as it did last
year.
Particularly noteworthy was the remark, “South Korea should
not pursue a unification of systems that triggers mistrust and conflict between
the North and South,” as it raises projections that Pyongyang may use Seoul’s
unification policy as reason to pull out from dialogue
down the line.
Lee went on to surmise that this statement, less than subtle
criticism directly from Kim Jong Eun’s lips about South Korea’s drive toward
unification through absorption, hints at the young leader’s desperation, who
may be thinking, according to the analyst, “‘Why does the South keep on forcing the idea of
unification upon us?’”
“Unlike Kim Il Sung, who always mentioned the idea of
unification under socialism, Kim Jong Eun’s stance opposing unification under a
unified system seems to reflect his fear that his system is unstable and that
people are losing faith they had for the Party,” Lee went on to explain.
In terms of economic development, the leader handed down
specific orders in line with the style of last year’s speech. This time, he
especially highlighted plans to step up projects initially laid out last year,
such as the economic development zones and working on the Wonsan-Mt. Geumgang
international tourism zone.
Of these prescriptions, one North Korean expert said,
“Bringing up tourism and economic zones is to push forward with projects that
will bring in foreign capital so that they can bring in more dollars,” but
pointed out that in order for such special economic zones to succeed “a
market economy and stability for investments must be guaranteed, but those
conditions remain unknown.”
