[imText1]It was known that the South Korean government has been worried about whether or not it will actively participate in Proliferation Security Initiative(PSI) because of the possibility of conflict between the South and the North. The government is just setting a policy that it will refer to actions that member states will propose to carry out the U.N resolution.
Regarding such stance of the government, the party supporting the government’s active participation claimed that if South Korea does not actively participate in PSI, it will lose its reliability from international community in the will of pursuing the U.N resolution. In addition, the opposing party pointed out that if the South Korean government is afraid of the retaliation of North Korea and although the possibility of their conflict is weak, it will be held a hostage by North Korea.
◆ If the South actively participates in PSI, physical conflicts will occur between the South and the North?
Kim Geun Tae, The Chairperson of the Uri party, strongly opposed the participation of the South Korean government in PSI, saying that, “the government should not take any action that could cause physical conflict in the Korean peninsular” and “Now we are still under the armistice agreement so that the physical conflict could collapse the whole nation. To prevent the kinds of conflicts is to guard Korea and its economy.”
However, some experts say that participating in PSI could not lead to conflicts with the North. Even after the participation, the South Korean government could choose specific actions that it wants to pursue so that it does not need to be negative.
The supporting party also said that in the process of the PSI participation, there would a low chance for some physical conflicts to happen. Yet a few local wars such as Yeunpyong naval battle and Westsea battle have happened before the nuclear test. So we could properly respond to some attack of the North.
Kim Hee Sang, a professor of North Korea department of Myungji University and former Adviser of the National Defense pointed out that, “If we continue to put great weight on the North Korea’ threat, then we cannot protect out free and democratic system. Also, because PSI is the action of international community, North Korea could be less likely to take provocative actions.”
◆ Why should South Korea participate in PSI?
After the U.N resolution, the U.S has urged South Korea to participate in PSI. Currently South Korea is participating as an observer in 5 actions of 8 PSI cooperative actions that the U.S requested. 5 actions include the training course for preventing WMD.
Yet, the South Korean government has delayed choosing 3 core actions such as ▲ official participation in PSI ▲ material aids during the intra-blocking training ▲ material aids during the offshore-blocking training.
The South Korean government has not set its stance in the participation, trying to read the stance of North Korea. After the nuclear test, however, it does not know what it should do because it is not able to avoid the international just cause.
Some experts say that the PSI participation is fit for the public opinion demanding using both carrot and stick to North Korea. Particularly, it is necessary for South Korea to participate in PSI to prevent itself from being controlled by North Korea.
Others are worried that not participating in PSI is highly likely to influence negatively the Korea-U.S alliance.
◆ What impact does PSI make on North Korea?
Since PSI against North Korea will block its transactions of counterfeit dollars and illegal drugs as well as weapon exports like missiles, North Korea will lose major sources of getting foreign currency.
PSI against North Korea is likely to target on not only WMD materials but also international illegal crimes. It will be highly likely to make a shocking impact on the North Korean economy still having faced serious economical problems, though it got out of its negative growth since 1999.
In addition, PSI is able to cause a sense of crisis among the North Korean military officials by reinforcing the check-up on North Korean ships in the level of an economical sanction and the economical and military pressures through a naval training around the Korean peninsular. Absolutely, we should see how things will go, whether such containment will cause deviation of the military or reinforce its cohesion.
However, if China and Russia take the supporting positions even indirectly, the North Korean military will be convulsed.
