Confirming the predictions of both domestic and foreign media, North Korea linked the issue of separated families with the upcoming U.S-ROK military drills at a rare session of inter-Korean talks held at Panmunjom on the 12th.
Little progress was made during the talks, South Korea’s Ministry of Unification reported soon afterward. While the South insisted that the reunions go ahead as planned, the North demanded the “Key Resolve” military drills be postponed until after the reunions take place on February 20th-25th.
It is hoped that the family reunions will constitute the vital first step toward improved North-South relations. Not surprisingly, however, no headway was made in regard to the North’s nuclear program.
“We insisted that the North show sincere action toward denuclearization. The issue of nuclear weapons is a matter for the international community to discuss, not just the North and South,” a Ministry of Unification spokesperson told press.
What can these high-level talks, the first to be held since 2007, reveal about the motivations of the North? Are they a sincere attempt to improve inter-Korean relations, or merely an attempt to throw off the South by offering them something they can’t possibly accept?
Some North Korea experts predict that the North will pursue its strategy to force the South to wobble, all the while inciting domestic conflict. In order to cultivate a favorable image overseas, it is argued, the North is likely to continue to make overtures toward negotiation in order to prove it is taking steps to improve relations with the South.
Choi Jin Wook of the Korea Institute for National Unification explained to Daily NK, “The North is utilizing these high-level talks as a means to suppress the American threat and break away from Chinese pressure. We have been given a glimpse at the anxiety of the regime. They are trying to show they are sincere both at home and abroad, rather than merely working to ensure the maximum benefit for themselves.”
“North Korea believes it sufficiently practical to spread propaganda that they are making moves toward reconciliation for the family reunions, while the South is ‘doing nothing.’ The North is sure to unveil its tactics by postponing the reunions just prior to the event, using the drills as an excuse. They will also continue to demand that they are stopped, while simultaneously pressuring the South Korean government and inciting South-South conflict,” he added.
A North Korea expert who requested anonymity believes that, “Kim Jong Eun’s main focus since the purge of Jang Song Taek is the construction and idolization of his unitary regime. To achieve this, he will secure foreign currency to consolidate his power, as well as engage with the South as a means to break out of international isolation. He wants to show that he is making efforts across the board to participate in cooperative dialogue.”
The expert went on, “The reunions do not pose any large threat to the regime, and they are useful in that they can promote this narrative of unity between the two Koreas. For these reasons it seems unlikely that the North would do a sudden about-turn on the reunions as they did last year.”
However, “It cannot be completely ruled out that the North could throw a spanner in the works. The Kim Jong Eun regime does not operate under the same rubric as a normal state system.”
