The Chinese government has yet to comment on Kim Jong Il’s China trip schedule, an event which is notable primarily for meeting none of the basic requirements of a state visit. This may well be an attempt to avoid exposing the state of Kim’s health to the media, but it will also make it less effective diplomatically.
Indeed, Kim’s departure from Sinuiju reminds one of nothing so much as a clandestine operation.
First, on May 1st, North Korea held its May Day commemorative meeting in Sinuiju, not Pyongyang, an unprecedented move. High ranking officials in North Korea including Prime Minister Kim Young Il all went to Sinuiju to attend the event, but Kim Jong Il himself did not take part.
Next, the Chinese security forces secured the area near Dandong Station and the North Korea-China Friendship Bridge from 4 A.M. this morning with more than 200 police and border guards.
Then, Kim Jong Il’s personal train suddenly passed through Dandong. If he arrived in Dandong at 5:20 A.M., it is estimated that he must have left Pyongyang between 1 and 2 A.M.! And since Sinuiju was not put on alert on the night of May 1st, it is not likely that Kim came to Sinuiju the night before and waited.
Kim apparently then arrived in Dalian, Liaoning Province at 10:40 AM. A car with Pyongyang number plates was seen heading for the Guobinguan Hotel in the city. But, again, there has been no confirmation of the facts.
The Guobinguan Hotel is run by the Chinese government as a place for leaders of the Communist Party of China and foreign high officials to stay, including, in the past, Kim Il Sung. A Daily NK source in Dalian confirmed that the hotel has not had any guests since April 30th.
Kim’s complete avoidance of media attention of any sort in this way is arousing pessimism with regards to the trip.
First, there are indications that Kim’s schedule was made too hurriedly. Notably, Kim is visiting right after the opening of the Shanghai Expo, a significant national event for China.
Second, China’s Foreign Ministry also failed to announce the visit, even once Kim had arrived in Dalian.
Finally, since Kim will be likely to focus on solving practical issues such as North Korea’s return to the Six-Party Talks and economic assistance rather than on strengthening the China-North Korean alliance, even if President Hu Jintao and Kim meet there will be no single issue on which a friendly agreement can be reached.
Kim visited China for nine days in January 2006, but back in 2004 he spent just three days in the country.
