[imText1]
Based on the fact that North Korea plans to launch the ‘Gwangmyungsung-3’ satellite using its ‘Unha-3’ launch vehicle this month, the risk that the world will soon see North Korea’s third nuclear test carried out is extremely high.
This was the conclusion reached by a number of experts at an afternoon conference of South Korean, U.S., Japanese and Russian experts hosted by Korea University’s Ilmin International Relations Institute yesterday.
Prof. Yoon Deok Min of Korea National Diplomatic Academy predicted poetically, “North Korea’s missile launch plan is a ceremony by a militarily powerful state to commemorate the centennial birthday of its founder Kim Il Sung. North Korea has been testing missiles since the days of Kim Il Sung and it will perform a nuclear test to show off its ability to scare the living daylights out of the U.S. and China.”
A senior research fellow with the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, Sheila A. Smith added with less zest, “As we can see from the missile tests in 2006 and 2009, a nuclear test has always come after the missile test. This time as well; we cannot rule out the possibility of a nuclear test after the missile test.”
Smith also noted that any missile test is of great importance to the region, so neighboring countries need to play a role in dealing with the issue collectively.
Looking at the underlying aims in more detail, Jeon Sung Hoon of the Korea Institute for National Unification concluded, “Kim Jong Eun will conduct the missile launch to secure the legitimacy of his regime as well as try to influence South Korea’s election atmosphere.”
He went on to explain, “The underlying calculation that North Korea is making is that through the missile test it can encourage domestic public opinion and bring out its preferred new political group by saying ‘It is because of South Korea that inter-Korea relations have failed and this has made North Korea launch a long-range missile’.”
